12 March 2026

• The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) proposed a revision of India’s earthquake zoning map in November 2025, aiming to adopt a more scientific seismic risk assessment system.
• The proposal introduced a new high-risk seismic category (Zone VI) covering parts of Kashmir, the Himalayan region, Kutch (Gujarat) and the North-East.
• Due to concerns over methodology, cost escalation, and implementation challenges, the Central Government rolled back the revised framework in March 2026.
• Multiple agencies, including the Central Water Commission, National Dam Safety Authority, and Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, raised objections.
• The government plans wider consultations before revising the seismic zoning framework again.

Key Points

• India’s seismic zoning map currently divides the country into 4 zones: II, III, IV and V (Zone V = highest risk).
• The revision proposed a fifth category – Zone VI, indicating extremely high seismic hazard areas.
• The revised model attempted to shift from deterministic seismic zoning to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA).
• PSHA estimates earthquake risk using probability- based simulations of ground motion over time.
• Nearly 59% of India’s land area is earthquake-prone (NDMA estimates).
• A one-zone increase in seismic classification may raise building costs by ~20%, while two-zone increases may raise costs by about one-third.
• Around 80% of India’s housing is informal, raising concerns that stricter codes may push construction outside regulatory systems.
• Stronger earthquake-resistant designs would require more cement and steel, affecting construction costs and carbon emissions.

Static Linkages

• India’s seismic activity is linked to the collision of the Indian Plate with the Eurasian Plate, forming the Himalayan seismic belt.
• The Indian Standard Code IS 1893 provides guidelines for earthquake-resistant design of structures.
• The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issues national guidelines for earthquake preparedness and mitigation.
• The Disaster Management Act, 2005 provides the legal framework for disaster risk reduction and preparedness in India.
• The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030) promotes risk-informed infrastructure planning and disaster resilience.

Critical Analysis

• Benefits of Revising Seismic Zoning
  • Improves scientific accuracy in earthquake hazard assessment.
  • Aligns India with global seismic risk assessment practices.
  • Strengthens earthquake-resilient infrastructure and urban planning.
  • Supports long-term disaster risk reduction strategies.
• Concerns
  • Significant increase in construction costs.
  • May slow infrastructure development in high-risk regions.
  • Risk of expansion of informal housing due to expensive compliance.
  • Need for better seismic data and local site studies.

Way Forward

• Conduct extensive stakeholder consultation involving engineers, ministries, industry and state governments.
• Implement phased seismic code adoption to reduce economic shocks.
• Promote low-cost earthquake-resistant construction technologies.
• Strengthen urban planning and building code enforcement.
• Integrate disaster resilience with climate-sensitive infrastructure planning.

WHY INDIA FACES AN LPG DEFICIT

• India recently faced LPG supply disruptions, highlighting gaps in strategic LPG storage capacity.
• India imports about 60% of its LPG, and over 85% of these imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making supplies vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.
• Rapid expansion of LPG connections through Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) significantly increased demand.
• However, long-term LPG storage infrastructure has not expanded proportionately, raising concerns about energy security.

Key Points

• Consumption
  • India consumes about 3 million tonnes of LPG per month.
  • Daily consumption is about 80,000 tonnes.
  • India is the second-largest LPG consumer globally.
• Import Dependence
  • LPG imports increased threefold from 2011–12 to 2024–25.
  • Import dependence increased from 47% (2015) to about 60%.
• Household Usage
  • India has around 33 crore LPG connections.
  • More than 85% of LPG consumption is by households.
  • 10 crore connections added since 2017 under PMUY.
• Storage Capacity
  • Underground LPG storage capacity is 1.4 lakh tonnes.
  • This equals less than two days of national consumption.
• Existing LPG Caverns
  • Visakhapatnam cavern (2007)
  • Mangaluru cavern (2025)
• Import Route Risk
  • Strait of Hormuz is a major chokepoint for India’s energy imports.
• Future Storage Options
  • Peninsular Shield (granite formations) – proven storage sites.
  • Deccan Traps – basalt formations but technically challenging.
  • Salt formations in Rajasthan (Bikaner–Barmer) – suitable for salt caverns.
  • Depleted gas reservoirs in Krishna–Godavari, Cambay, and Mumbai offshore basins under study.

Static Points

• Energy security means uninterrupted availability of energy sources at affordable prices.
• Strategic reserves are created to handle supply disruptions due to wars or geopolitical crises.
• Salt caverns are preferred for hydrocarbon storage because they are naturally impermeable and structurally stable.
• India has Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru and Padur.

Critical Points

• Importance
  • Improves energy security.
  • Supports clean cooking transition.
  • Reduces indoor air pollution and biomass dependence.
• Concerns
  • High import dependency.
  • Limited strategic LPG storage.
  • Vulnerability to geopolitical chokepoints.
  • Lack of long-term infrastructure planning.

Way Forward

• Develop strategic LPG reserves similar to Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
• Expand underground cavern storage in suitable geological regions.
• Diversify import sources beyond West Asia.
• Promote domestic production and alternative fuels like biogas and compressed biogas.
• Integrate LPG planning with national energy security strategy.

GENTLE TRADE ERA GIVES WAY TO JUNGLE

• Increasing use of tariffs, export controls, sanctions, and industrial policies by major economies indicates a shift from free trade– led globalisation to strategic or protectionist trade policies.
• Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia–Ukraine conflict, and US–China technological rivalry exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
• Countries are prioritising economic security and supply-chain resilience over efficiency, leading to concepts such as friend-shoring, near-shoring, and reshoring.
• This trend reflects declining trust in the multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Key Points

• Doux Commerce Theory:
  • Enlightenment idea that trade promotes peace and cooperation among nations.
• Shift in Global Trade Pattern
  • From efficiency-driven globalisation → security-driven trade policies.
  • Supply chain diversification to reduce strategic dependence.
• Weaponisation of Trad
  • Export controls on semiconductors, rare earth minerals, and advanced technologies.
  • Use of tariffs and sanctions for geopolitical objectives.
• Supply Chain Restructuring
  • Friend-shoring: Relocating supply chains to trusted political partners.
  • Near-shoring: Production closer to domestic markets.
  • Reshoring: Bringing manufacturing back to home country.
• Decline of Multilateralism
  • Rise in regional and bilateral trade agreements.
  • Weakening dispute settlement system of WTO.
• Implications
  • Higher trade costs and possible inflation.  
  • Fragmentation of global economic order.

Static Points

• WTO established in 1995 replacing GATT (1947).
• WTO trade principles include Most Favoured Nation (MFN) and National Treatment.
• Global trade is based on the theory of comparative advantage.
• Supply chains rely heavily on maritime chokepoints such as Strait of Hormuz, Malacca Strait, and Suez Canal.
• India adopted trade liberalisation during 1991 economic reforms.

Critical Analysis

• Positive Aspects
  • Strengthens national economic security.
  • Reduces dependency on geopolitical rivals.
  • Encourages domestic manufacturing and industrial policy.
• Concerns
  • Weakens rules-based global trade order.
  • Leads to trade fragmentation and protectionism.
  • Increases production costs and inflation.
  • Risks escalation from economic competition to geopolitical conflict.
• Implications for India
  • Opportunity to become alternative supply chain hub.
  • Need to strengthen manufacturing, logistics, and trade competitiveness.

Way Forward

• Reform and strengthen the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.
• Promote resilient and diversified supply chains.
• Balance strategic autonomy with global economic integration.
• Expand India’s participation in regional trade and supply chain partnerships.
• Invest in critical technologies and strategic sectors.

U.S. ATTACKFDI FROM CHINA

• Escalation of tensions between United States, Israel, and Iran following recent military strikes and targeted attacks in West Asia.
• Renewed debate over external intervention and regime change in sovereign states.
• Developments are occurring near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.
• Implications for India’s energy security, Indian diaspora in the Gulf, and connectivity projects like Chabahar Port and the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
• Also tests India’s strategic autonomy and diplomatic positioning before forums like BRICS.

Key Points

• History of U.S. interventions
  • Iran (1953 coup), Guatemala (1954), Chile (1973), Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003).
  • Frequently debated in relation to sovereignty and international law.
• International Law
  • United Nations Charter Article 2(4) prohibits the threat or use of force against territorial integrity or political independence of states.
• “Rally Around the Flag” Effect
  • External conflicts may strengthen domestic legitimacy of governments.
  • National security narratives can suppress dissent and consolidate power.
• Strategic Importance of Iran
  • Regional power in West Asia.
  • Located near the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~1/3 of global seaborne oil trade passes.
• Implications for India
  • India imports ~85–90% of crude oil (Economic Survey).
  • About 9 million Indians live in Gulf countries.
  • Chabahar Port enables access to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan.
  • INSTC links India with Iran, Russia and Eurasia.

Static Linkages

• UN Charter principles: sovereign equality, territorial integrity, non-intervention, peaceful dispute resolution.
• Major maritime chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, Bab-el-Mandeb.
• India’s foreign policy: strategic autonomy, non- alignment legacy, peaceful conflict resolution.
• Connectivity initiatives enhance trade with Central Asia and Eurasia.

Critical Analysis

• Concerns
  • Military interventions undermine international law and sovereignty.
  • Risk of regional instability in West Asia affecting global oil supply.
  • Threats to maritime trade routes and shipping security.
  • Rising geopolitical polarization. For India
  • Possible oil price rise and inflationary pressure.  
  • Security concerns for the Indian diaspora in the Gulf.
  • Diplomatic challenge of balancing ties with U.S., Israel and Iran.
• Opportunity
  • Scope for India to act as a neutral diplomatic actor promoting multipolarity.

Way Forward

• Maintain strategic autonomy while engaging all stakeholders.
• Diversify energy sources and expand strategic petroleum reserves.
• Accelerate Chabahar Port and INSTC connectivity projects.
• Promote diplomatic solutions via multilateral forums such as BRICS and the UN.
• Strengthen maritime security cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region.

• In April 2020, India amended its FDI policy to prevent opportunistic takeovers of Indian companies during the COVID-19 economic disruption.
• The amendment mandated government approval for investments from countries sharing a land border with India (LBCs).
• Recently, the Union Cabinet relaxed certain provisions of this policy to facilitate investments.
• Non-controlling beneficial ownership up to 10% from LBC investors is now permitted through the automatic route.
• Investment proposals from LBCs in key manufacturing sectors (capital goods, electronics components, etc.) will be processed within 60 days.

Key Points

• Countries sharing land borders with India: China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Afghanistan.
• April 2020 amendment: Mandatory government approval for any FDI from LBCs.
• Objective: Prevent hostile or opportunistic acquisition of Indian firms during economic distress.
• New changes:
  • Up to 10% non-controlling beneficial ownership allowed under automatic route.
  • Faster clearance (within 60 days) for investments in selected manufacturing sectors.
• Economic Survey 2023-24: Suggested that easing Chinese FDI could help India benefit from the China+1 supply chain strategy.
• Trade pattern: Despite investment restrictions, India-China trade has expanded, especially in electronics, machinery, and industrial inputs.
• Policy aims to increase FDI inflows, access technology, and integrate India into global supply chains.

Static Linkages

• FDI policy governed under Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), 1999.
• Administered by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT).
• Two routes for FDI:
  • Automatic route
  • Government route
• FDI plays a key role in industrial growth, technology transfer, employment generation, and export competitiveness.
• Global Value Chains (GVCs) are central to modern manufacturing.
• Government initiatives promoting manufacturing include Make in India and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes.

Critical Analysis

• Advantages
  • Facilitates FDI inflows and capital availability.
  • Enables technology transfer in manufacturing sectors.
  • Helps India integrate into global value chains.
  • Supports China+1 strategy, attracting firms diversifying production.
  • Improves manufacturing competitiveness and exports.
• Concerns
  • National security risks in strategic sectors.
  • Potential economic dependence on Chinese supply chains.
  • India already faces a large trade deficit with China.
  • Geopolitical tensions may affect investment stability.

Way Forward

•  Maintain strict screening of investments in sensitive sectors.
• Encourage joint ventures with Indian firms for technology transfer.
• Strengthen domestic manufacturing ecosystem through PLI and infrastructure.
• Diversify supply chains with Japan, South Korea, EU, and ASEAN
• Balance economic interests with strategic security considerations