GDP Growth Pegged At 7.4% | SC Disagrees With LS Speaker | Venezuela To Give US 50mn Oil | NATGRID And Digital Control | Sharpen India’s AMR Battle Signal | Letter Against Spirit | The Middle Path | Why Gaza’s Donkey Broke Me | SC Rap On CAQM, A Wake-Up Call | Economy Grows,But Risk Loom | Why Silver Soared 160% in 2025
GDP GROWTH PEGGED AT 7.4%- Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released First Advance Estimates (FAE) of GDP for 2025–26.
- Real GDP growth estimated at 7.4%, higher than 6.5% in 2024–25.
- Nominal GDP growth estimated at 8%.
- FAE is crucial as it forms the base for Union Budget calculations.
Key Data & Facts
- Real GDP growth (2025–26): 7.4%
- Nominal GDP growth: 8%
- Q1 growth: 7.8%
- Q2 growth: 8.2%
- Estimated H2 average growth: 6.8% RBI projection (Dec 2025): 7.3%
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure growth: 7%
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation growth: 7.8% Mining & quarrying growth: –0.7%
- Services sector growth: 9.1%
Static Linkages
- GDP measured using Production, Income and Expenditure approaches
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) indicates household demand
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) reflects investment activity
- Services sector is the largest contributor to India’s GDP
- Advance Estimates are part of National Income Accounting
Critical Analysis
- Strengths
- Robust services sector cushions global slowdown
- Rising capital formation indicates investment revival
- Growth maintained despite external trade shocks
- Concerns
- Consumption growth remains modest
- Mining sector contraction affects core industries
- Overdependence on services may limit job creation
- Export-oriented labour-intensive sectors under stress
Way Forward
- Boost domestic demand through income and employment support
- Accelerate manufacturing and mining reforms Diversify export markets to reduce tariff vulnerability
- Encourage private investment through policy stability
- Focus on balanced sectoral growth
SC DISAGREES WITH LS SPEAKER
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Allegations emerged in March 2025 regarding half-burnt currency found at the official residence of a sitting High Court judge in Delhi.
- Removal motions were submitted in both Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha on July 21, 2025.
- The Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman rejected the motion due to procedural reasons amid vacancy of the Chairman’s office.
- On August 12, 2025, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla constituted a three-member inquiry committee under the Judges (Inquiry) Act, 1968.
- The judge challenged the committee, arguing that it must be jointly constituted by the Speaker and Chairman of Rajya Sabha.
- The Supreme Court of India prima facie disagreed, stating there is no statutory bar on the Speaker acting if one House rejects the motion.
Key Points
- Judges (Inquiry) Act, 1968 operationalises Articles 124(4) and 217(1)(b) of the Constitution.
- Section 3(2): After admission of a motion, a three- member committee is formed:
- A Supreme Court judge
- A High Court Chief Justice An eminent jurist
- First Proviso to Section 3(2):
- Applies only when motions are admitted in both Houses on the same day.
- Committee must then be constituted jointly by Speaker and Chairman.
- In the present case:
- Rajya Sabha motion was not admitted.
- Hence, joint constitution requirement not triggered.
- Deputy Chairman can exercise Chairman’s functions during vacancy under Rules of Procedure of Rajya Sabha.
Static Linkages
- Removal of judges is a quasi-judicial parliamentary process, not purely political.
- Presiding Officers act as statutory authorities, not merely House regulators.
- Doctrine of constitutional silence: where law is silent, interpretation must further constitutional objectives.
- Balance between judicial independence and institutional accountability.
Critical Analysis
- Strengths
- Prevents procedural paralysis in cases of serious judicial misconduct.
- Upholds legislative responsibility in ensuring judicial accountability.
- Supreme Court’s view promotes functional interpretation of statutes.
- Concerns
- Ambiguity in law regarding inter-House coordination.
- Possibility of perceived executive/legislative overreach.
- Risk of politicisation of impeachment mechanisms. Constitutional Dimension
- Independence of judiciary is not immunity from scrutiny.
- Accountability mechanisms must operate without undermining judicial autonomy.
Way Forward
- Codify procedures for scenarios involving vacancy or rejection by one House.
- Issue parliamentary guidelines clarifying Presiding Officers’ statutory roles.
- Strengthen internal checks to prevent misuse of impeachment provisions.
- Ensure time-bound inquiry to maintain public confidence in institutions.
VENEZUELA TO GIVE US 50 MN OIL
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- Donald Trump claimed Venezuela’s interim authorities would transfer 30–50 million barrels of oil to the United States after U.S. military action.
- Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro taken into U.S. custody on charges of narco- terrorism.
- Delcy Rodríguez appointed interim leader; denies foreign governance.
Key Exam Facts
- Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves.
- Current oil production: < 1 million barrels/day.
- 50 million barrels ≈ $3 billion (at ~$60/barrel).
- At present output, >2 months needed to produce 50 million barrels.
- U.S. imposed economic sanctions + naval quarantine on Venezuelan oil.
Core Concepts to Remember
- State sovereignty & non-intervention are fundamental principles of international law.
- Control over natural resources lies with the sovereign state.
- Sanctions are tools of coercive diplomacy but remain legally contested when unilateral.
- Military intervention for resource access raises ethical and legal concerns.
Why Important for exam
- Illustrates power politics vs rule-based international order.
- Shows energy security as a driver of foreign policy.
- Highlights challenges to UN Charter principles.
- Relevant example of regime change & interim governments in IR.
Prelims Takeaway
- Largest oil reserves country → Venezuela
- Oil diplomacy + sanctions + intervention = contemporary geopolitics trend
- Sovereignty over resources is internationally recognised, external control is disputed
NATGRID AND DIGITAL CONTROL
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- National Intelligence Grid (NATGRID) has gained operational traction in 2025.
- Reports indicate:
- ~45,000 queries per month.
- Access expanded from Central agencies to State police (up to SP rank).
- Integration with National Population Register (NPR) covering ~119 crore residents.
- Originally conceptualised after the 2008 Mumbai attacks (26/11) to address intelligence coordination failures.
Key Points
- NATGRID is a secure middleware platform (not a database).
- Enables authorised agencies to query data from 21 categories, including:
- Identity, immigration, banking, telecom, travel records.
- Approved in 2012 by Cabinet Committee on Security (executive order).
- Lacks:
- Dedicated Parliamentary law
- Independent statutory oversight authority
- Recent upgrades include:
- Advanced analytics and entity resolution tools
- Potential use of facial recognition + KYC datasets
Static Linkages
- Right to Privacy under Article 21 recognised in
- Justice K.S. Puttaswamy v. Union of India Surveillance must satisfy:
- Legality
- Necessity
- Proportionality
- Procedural safeguards
- Police → State List, but intelligence & national security → Union domain
- 2nd ARC: Intelligence reforms must balance efficiency with accountability
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Improves inter-agency intelligence sharing
- Helps in counter-terrorism, organised crime, economic offences
- Reduces data silos → faster investigations
- Concerns
- No statutory backing → weak constitutional legitimacy
- Integration with NPR risks mass surveillance
- Algorithmic bias may reinforce social profiling
- Expansion to routine policing → mission creep
- Logging without independent audit → weak safeguard
- Judicial and parliamentary oversight largely absent
Way Forward
- Enact a NATGRID-specific legislation Define:
- Purpose limitation
- Access thresholds
- Data retention norms
- Create Parliamentary Intelligence Oversight Committee
- Mandatory judicial authorisation for sensitive queries
- Independent audits (CAG / Data Protection Authority)
- Strengthen human intelligence & police training, not only tech reliance
SHARPEN INDIA’S AMR BATTLE SIGNAL
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- In the 129th Mann Ki Baat (Dec 28, 2025), Narendra Modi flagged antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as a serious public health concern
- Cited Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) data showing declining effectiveness of antibiotics for pneumonia and UTIs.
- Advised citizens to avoid self-medication and indiscriminate antibiotic use.
- Significance: Brings AMR into public discourse, beyond experts and policy circles.
Key Points
- AMR: Ability of microbes to resist antimicrobial drugs.
- Major cause in India: Misuse and overuse of antibiotics (OTC sales, self-medication).
- India’s surveillance:
- NARS-Net (2013): ~60 sentinel government medical college labs.
- Reports data to Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (WHO-GLASS).
- Coverage skewed towards urban tertiary centres.
- Gap: Limited data from rural, primary/secondary care and private hospitals.
- Approach needed: One Health (human– animal–environment interface).
Static Linkages
- Drug resistance due to natural selection.
- Antibiotic misuse as negative externality.
- Public health as state responsibility.
- Surveillance systems in disease control.
- Human–animal–environment health interlinkage.
Critical Analysis
- Positives
- High-level political messaging → mass awareness.
- Behavioural focus complements policy measures.
- Aligns with WHO Global Action Plan on AMR.
- Concerns
- Awareness alone insufficient without regulation.
- Weak enforcement of prescription-only antibiotics.
- Inadequate and non-representative surveillance.
- Limited One Health integration.
Way Forward
- Expand AMR surveillance to district, primary and private facilities.
- Strict enforcement of prescription-only antibiotic sales.
- Institutionalise One Health coordination.
- Strengthen infection prevention and antibiotic stewardship.
- Invest in labs, diagnostics, and AMR research.
LETTER AGAINST SPIRIT- The Election Commission of India (ECI) informed the Supreme Court of India on January 6 that it has a constitutional obligation to ensure that only Indian citizens are included in electoral rolls.
- The submission came in defence of the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, during which millions of names have been deleted.
- Opposition parties, legal scholars, and civil society groups have raised concerns over burden of proof, harassment, and exclusion of genuine citizens.
- The debate centres on whether the ECI’s current approach aligns with the letter and spirit of its constitutional mandate.
Key Points
- Article 324 grants the ECI superintendence, direction, and control over preparation of electoral rolls.
- The ECI argued that even a single foreign national cannot be allowed on voter lists.
- Critics highlight that no stakeholder has defended inclusion of foreigners, but question the process and proportionality of SIR.
- Large-scale deletions raise fears of disenfranchisement, especially of the poor, migrants, minorities, and urban informal workers.
- Trust in electoral processes depends on whether losing sides accept outcomes as fair, a key democratic principle.
Static Linkages
- Universal adult franchise as a basic feature of Indian democracy.
- Right to vote as a statutory right under the Representation of the People Act, 1950 & 1951.
- Principle of procedural fairness and natural justice in administrative action.
- Independence of constitutional bodies as essential to free and fair elections.
- Doctrine that exclusion error is more harmful than inclusion error in democratic processes.
Critical Analysis
- Concerns / Challenges
- Excessive focus on exclusion rather than enrolment of all eligible citizens.
- Burden of proving citizenship placed on ordinary citizens.
- Risk of partisan or selective application of rules.
- Potential erosion of institutional credibility of the ECI.
- Administrative inconvenience translating into democratic harm.
- Justifications / Supportive Arguments
- Clean electoral rolls are essential for electoral integrity.
- Article 324 provides wide discretionary powers to the ECI.
- Preventing illegal voting is a legitimate state interest.
Way Forward
- Reorient electoral revision towards maximum inclusion with safeguards.
- Use state databases proactively instead of citizen-led proof submission.
- Ensure transparency, notice, hearing, and appeal mechanisms.
- Parliamentary oversight and judicial review for large-scale revisions.
- Reinforce ECI’s role as enabler of franchise, not merely gatekeeper.
THE MIDDLE PATH
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Tamil Nadu government announced Tamil Nadu Assured Pension Scheme (TAPS) ahead of Assembly elections.
- Aimed at balancing electoral promise of OPS restoration with fiscal prudence.
- Applies mainly to employees recruited after April 2003 under CPS.
Key Features
- Assured pension: 50% of last drawn pay.
- Employee contribution continues (unlike OPS).
- Minimum assured pension irrespective of years of service.
- Death-cum-retirement gratuity included (OPS feature).
- Hybrid of OPS + UPS (Central Govt.) models.
Fiscal & Economic Facts
- State debt: ~26.1% of GSDP (declining, but above pre-COVID ~21.5%).
- Dual burden till 2033:
- OPS retirees’ pensions.
- Government contribution for TAPS employees.
- State’s Own Tax Revenue (SOTR):
- Growth (Apr–Sept): 3.94% vs projected 22.6%.
- GST restructuring impact on State finances uncertain.
Static Linkages
- Shift from Defined Benefit (OPS) to Defined Contribution (CPS) post-2000s.
- Pension = committed expenditure affecting fiscal deficit.
- FRBM framework → debt sustainability.
- Pay Commission revisions cause pension reset under OPS.
- Concept of intergenerational equity in public finance.
Issues / Critical Analysis
- Advantages
- Ensures income security for post-2003 employees.
- Avoids fiscally risky full OPS restoration. Predictable pension liability.
- Concerns
- Continued fiscal stress due to dual pension systems.
- Slow revenue growth limits fiscal space.
- Election-timed announcement → risk of populism.
- Long-term sustainability depends on revenue performance.
Way Forward
- Regular actuarial assessment of pension liabilities.
- Improve tax buoyancy and GST efficiency.
- Strict adherence to FRBM targets.
- Transparent reporting of pension obligations.
- Political consensus against fiscally unsustainable OPS.
WHY GAZA’S DONKEY BROKE ME
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context/ Background
- Ongoing armed conflict in Gaza has caused:
- Large-scale civilian displacement
- Destruction of infrastructure (transport, fuel, health services)
- Civilians are forced to use animal-drawn carts due to:
- Fuel shortages
- Collapse of modern logistics
- The situation reflects the humanitarian impact of modern warfare.
Why This Matters for exam
- Illustrates failure of global governance in conflict zones.
- Highlights limits of technological warfare in ensuring human security.
- Raises ethical and legal questions under International Humanitarian Law (IHL).
Core Analytical Points
- Armed conflicts increasingly impact non- combatants, violating IHL principles.
- Civilian displacement shows:
- Breakdown of state capacity
- Weak enforcement of humanitarian norms
- Dependence on animals indicates:
- Regression due to infrastructural collapse
- Vulnerability of marginalized populations
- Human security is compromised despite advanced military technology.
Ethical Dimensions
- Moral responsibility of states to protect civilians.
- Ethics of care towards vulnerable groups during conflict.
- Question of means vs ends in security policy.
- Silence of global institutions raises issues of moral apathy.
Static Linkages
- Geneva Conventions (1949) – protection of civilians and non-combatants.
- Human Security (UNDP, 1994) – freedom from fear and want.
- Just War Theory – proportionality and discrimination.
- UN Charter – maintenance of international peace and security.
Value Addition Lines
- “Modern warfare has eroded the distinction between combatants and civilians.”
- “Human security must complement state- centric notions of national security.”
- “Technological superiority does not translate into moral legitimacy.”
Way Forward
- Strengthen enforcement of International Humanitarian Law.
- Ensure humanitarian corridors in conflict zones.
- Reform global institutions to prevent selective intervention.
- Prioritise civilian protection over strategic dominance.
One-Line Prelims Takeaway
- Human Security concept was introduced by UNDP (1994)
SC RAP ON CAQM, A WAKE-UP CALL
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Delhi continues to experience persistently poor air quality throughout the year, not limited to winter months.
- The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) was established in 2020 to ensure coordinated air pollution control in Delhi–NCR.
- Despite its mandate, air quality outcomes have not improved significantly.
- The Supreme Court of India criticised CAQM for:
- Failure to identify definite pollution sources.
- Absence of long-term, scientific solutions.
- The Court directed CAQM to quantify emissions source-wise and plan sustainable interventions.
Key Points
- Delhi’s air pollution is a structural and year- round problem, with fluctuating intensity.
- Major pollution sources:
- Vehicular emissions
- Industrial activity
- Construction dust and unpaved roads
- Biomass and stubble burning
- CAQM’s approach has been largely reactive, relying on bans and restrictions.
- Implementation depends on multiple agencies, causing:
- Weak enforcement
- Diffused accountability
- Lack of real-time, granular emissions data limits targeted policymaking.
- Poor coordination among traffic police, municipal bodies, pollution boards, and states.
Static Linkages
- Clean environment as part of Right to Life (Article 21).
- Article 48A: State’s duty to protect environment.
- Article 51A(g): Citizens’ duty to safeguard environment.
- Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981: Legal framework for air quality regulation.
- NCERT: Air pollution as a major anthropogenic environmental problem affecting health and productivity.
- Economic Survey: Air pollution linked to loss of labour productivity and rising health costs.
Critical Analysis
- Issues Identified
- Over-dependence on short-term emergency measures.
- Weak institutional authority of CAQM.
- Lack of source apportionment-based regulation.
- Poor inter-state and inter-agency coordination.
- Inadequate monitoring and compliance mechanisms.
- Implications
- Continued public health risks.
- Loss of public trust in regulatory institutions.
- Judicial intervention replacing executive action.
Way Forward
- Strengthen CAQM with clear enforcement powers.
- Institutionalise continuous emissions monitoring systems (CEMS).
- Regular, season-wise source apportionment studies.
- Fixed accountability framework for implementing agencies.
- Shift from bans to structural reforms in: Transport
- Urban planning Energy use
- Promote airshed-based and data-driven governance.
ECONOMY GROWS, BUT RISK LOOM- National Statistics Office released First Advance Estimates of GDP (2025–26).
- Real GDP growth estimated at ~7%, higher than initial expectations.
- Growth expected to moderate in second half of the year.
- Concerns over low nominal GDP growth and fiscal implications.
- Upcoming revision of GDP, CPI, and IIP series.
Key Points
- Growth Trend
- H1 growth: ~8%
- H2 growth: ~6.8%
- Sector-wise Performance
- Services sector: 9.1% growth (trade, transport, finance, real estate, public administration).
- Manufacturing: moderate improvement. Construction & utilities: slower growth.
- Demand Side
- Consumption and investment growing at healthy pace.
- Nominal GDP
- Estimated at ~8%
- Lower than Union Budget assumption (10.1%)
- Second consecutive year below 10%.
- Risks
- Slower government expenditure.
- Impact of US tariff measures under Donald Trump on exports.
- Statistical Updates
- New GDP series with 2022–23 base year.
- New CPI (base year 2024).
- Revised Index of Industrial Production.
Static Linkages
- Real GDP vs Nominal GDP GDP deflator
- Debt–GDP ratio and fiscal deficit
- Base year revision in national accounts Services-led growth model
- Inflation measurement using CPI
Critical Analysis
- Positives
- Strong services sector supports overall growth.
- Stable domestic demand.
- Manufacturing recovery signals structural improvement.
- Concerns
- Low nominal GDP affects: Fiscal deficit targets
- Debt sustainability
- Services-led growth may be less employment- intensive.
- External trade vulnerability persists.
- Estimates based on limited data (till November).
Way Forward
- Boost capital expenditure.
- Strengthen manufacturing and exports. Diversify trade partners.
- Ensure transparency in revised data series.
- Align fiscal targets with realistic nominal growth.
WHY SILVER SOARED 160% IN 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Silver prices rose over 160% in 2025 and over 7% in early 2026.
- Gold also hit record highs in 2025 amid global trade tensions and loose monetary policy in the US.
- Silver outperformed due to combined investment demand and industrial demand.
- Supply-side disruptions intensified after:
- US included silver in its Critical Minerals List (Nov 2025).
- China imposed new rare metals export restrictions (from Jan 1, 2026).
Key Points
- Nature of demand
- Unlike gold (store of value), silver has strong industrial use.
- Key sectors: solar panels, batteries, electronics, AI infrastructure, smart grids.
- AI linkage
- Expansion of AI data centres and smart infrastructure increased silver demand.
- Supply constraints
- Silver is largely a by-product of lead, zinc, and copper mining.
- Limited ability to quickly expand supply.
- Stockpiling
- US silver inventories rose to 531 million ounces (Sept 2025) due to tariff fears.
- Market imbalance
- Shortage of physical silver in London bullion market (Oct 2025) pushed global prices up.
- India-specific trend
- Silver ETF inflows peaked at ₹5,342 crore (Sept 2025).
- Gold + Silver ETFs formed 71.9% of passive fund inflows.
- Self-reinforcing cycle
- Rising prices → ETF inflows → physical buying → further supply shortage → higher prices.
- Other metals
- Copper crossed $12,000/tonne (Dec 2025) due to similar supply and tariff concerns.
Static Linkages
- Precious metals as hedge against inflation and currency depreciation
- Demand–supply mismatch in commodities with inelastic supply
- Role of ETFs in price discovery
- Concept of critical minerals and strategic resource security
- Debasement trade during expansionary monetary policy
Critical Analysis
- Advantages
- Supports renewable energy and AI-led growth.
- Acts as portfolio diversification during volatility.
- Encourages strategic mineral planning.
- Concerns
- Excessive financialisation increases price volatility.
- High prices affect renewable energy costs.
- Import dependence worsens current account pressures.
- Speculation-driven demand may distort real economy needs.
Way Forward
- Diversify import sources of critical minerals.
- Promote urban mining and recycling of silver.
- Strengthen regulation of commodity ETFs.
- Build strategic reserves of critical minerals.
- Improve investor awareness on commodity risks.
