26 September 2025

• In August 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, citing trade imbalances and India’s purchase of Russian crude. While the immediate diplomatic response from India was restrained, the tariffs exposed deeper structural and spatial imbalances within India’s export economy, particularly marginalising the northeast and certain interior states.

Background / Static Linkage

• Economic Geography: India’s export economy is heavily concentrated in a few states— Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka—reflecting historical industrialisation patterns, colonial trade routes, and post-independence policy incentives.
• Trade Policy & Institutions: India operates schemes like RoDTEP (Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products) and PLI (Production-Linked Incentive) to boost exports. Institutions such as the Board of Trade and the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council shape national export strategies.
• Northeast Context: Historically, the northeast has been seen as a “strategic region” rather than an economic engine. Insurgency management, border security, and connectivity issues have overshadowed trade development.
• India-U.S. Trade Relations: The U.S. has frequently cited trade deficits, retaliatory measures, and geopolitical alignments (e.g., India’s Russian crude imports) in tariff decisions.

Significance / Importance

• Economic: Highlights the over- reliance on a few industrial corridors; shocks in these regions can disrupt national exports.
• Regional Development: Exposes the marginalisation of states like Bihar, UP, Madhya Pradesh, and the northeast in India’s economic growth narrative.
• Strategic / Geopolitical: With the northeast largely unintegrated economically, India’s Act East Policy and its role in the Indo-Pacific strategy face structural limitations.
• Social Impact: Communities dependent on tea, crude, and local industries in Assam and the northeast risk employment losses due to trade disruptions.

Critical Analysis Pros / Opportunities

• Opportunity to rethink spatial economic policies and decentralise export-led growth. Potential to develop northeast trade corridors, linking India to ASEAN via Myanmar and Thailand.
• Strengthening infrastructure and logistics can increase resilience to global shocks, reducing over-dependence on Gujarat or Tamil Nadu.

Cons / Challenges

• Structural neglect of interior and northeastern states creates economic vulnerability and regional inequality.
• Trade infrastructure in the northeast is underdeveloped; roads, cold chains, and customs facilities are inadequate.
• Tariff shocks directly impact fragile industries, e.g., Assam’s tea and Numaligarh refinery’s crude supply chain.
• Geopolitical risks: Chinese investments in northern Myanmar may further erode India’s regional leverage.

Debates / Contradictions

•  While India promotes a ‘Make in India’ and export-led growth’ narrative, the benefits are geographically concentrated.
•  Security-centric policies in border regions prioritize surveillance over economic integration, conflicting with trade and development goals.
• Political narratives emphasize national resilience, but practical trade resilience requires regional economic dispersal.

Government / International Measures

• RoDTEP & PLI: Focused on industrial clusters in western and southern states; northeast largely excluded.
• India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway: Intended to boost Act East Policy; incomplete and underperforming.
• Board of Trade & PM Economic Advisory Council: Lack regional representation from northeast states.
• Bilateral & Multilateral Trade Engagements: India-US trade relations, FTAs with other nations, largely benefit already-industrialised states.

Prelims Pointers

•  Major Export States: Gujarat (~33%), Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka (~70% of total exports).
•  Neglected Regions: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (~5% exports); Northeast (0.13% exports).
•   Key Schemes: RoDTEP, PLI.
•  Trade Corridors: India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, Siliguri Corridor.
•  Important Institutions: Board of Trade, PM Economic Advisory Council, DGFT.
•  Commodities at Risk: Tea (Assam), Crude (Numaligarh refinery), Electronics & Textiles in western hubs.

Way Forward / Recommendations

•  Infrastructure Development: Build ports, cold chains, roads, and logistics hubs in northeast and interior states.
•  Institutional Inclusion: Include regional voices in economic advisory bodies and export policy planning.
•  Diversification of Exports: Encourage high-value local industries (e.g., tea branding, agro- processing, tourism-linked exports).
•  Strategic Economic Integration: Align Act East Policy and national export strategy with regional development.
•  Policy Synchronisation: Trade policy must consider geopolitical, social, and environmental dimensions alongside economic efficiency.

THE SAUDI-PAKISTAN DEAL UPENDS INDIA’S STRATEGIC THOUGHT

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context & Key Development:

• Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, stipulating: “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”
•  This move has heightened security concerns for India, especially given recent tensions with Pakistan following the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack and subsequent Operation Sindoor.

Background:

•  India’s efforts to internationally isolate Pakistan post-Pahalgam attack have not fully succeeded.
• The agreement strengthens Pakistan’s geopolitical positioning and reaffirms its strategic importance for Saudi Arabia, especially in regional security matters.
• Historical context: Pakistan previously declined Saudi requests (e.g., 2015 Yemen campaign) but is now realigning as Riyadh seeks strategic autonomy amid doubts about the U.S.

Geopolitical Implications:

• The pact reflects shifts in West Asian strategic calculations, including:
  • Riyadh’s pursuit of multipolarity, strategic autonomy, and multialignment.
  • Renewed Pakistan-Saudi ties based on Sunnism and military cooperation.
  • Increased relevance of Pakistan’s nuclear capability in regional power dynamics.
• India’s strong West Asia outreach cannot easily wedge Riyadh away from Islamabad; religious and ideological factors underpin bilateral ties.

Implications for India:

• Direct security concerns over Pakistan-Saudi military cooperation and possible implications for the Indian subcontinent.

• Reflects challenges in India’s risk-averse strategic thinking; highlights the need for assertive foreign policy and power projection.

• Signals the changing global order and the necessity for India to act decisively rather than adopt a passive ‘pacifist’ posture.

Exam Relevance:

•  International Relations: India-Saudi-Pakistan dynamics; Middle East geopolitics; multipolarity and strategic autonomy.
•  Security & Defence: Nuclear diplomacy, regional security architecture, military alliances.
•  Current Affairs Perspective: Illustrates how regional conflicts, terrorism, and shifting alliances shape global and South Asian security landscapes.

Key Takeaways:

• Pakistan leverages nuclear status and military capabilities to gain strategic advantages.
• Saudi Arabia seeks autonomy from U.S. dependency and strengthens traditional alliances.
• India must reassess strategic priorities and align foreign policy with evolving geopolitical realities.

MISTRUST IN LADAKH

Headline / News Context

• Violent protests in Ladakh on 24 Sept 2025: 4 deaths, several injuries.
•  Trigger: Youth-led agitation over statehood, Sixth Schedule inclusion, job reservations, and political representation.
•  Main actors: Leh Apex Body (LAB) – Buddhist- majority Leh; Kargil Democratic Alliance (KDA) – Muslim-majority Kargil.
• Previous May 2025 agreement addressed core demands, but recent events reignited unrest.

Background / Static Linkages

•  Geography & Security: UT of India, borders China (Aksai Chin) & Pakistan (GB) – strategically sensitive. 
• Constitution: Ladakh – UT without legislature; only LAHDCs (Leh & Kargil).
• Demography: Leh – Buddhist majority; Kargil – Muslim majority; regional representation issues.
• Economy: Dependence on government jobs, tourism; limited private sector; youth unemployment.
•  Constitutional Linkages: Sixth Schedule – grants tribal autonomy (like Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, parts of Meghalaya).

Issue Analysis

• Importance: Balances regional aspirations with national security.
• Challenges:
  • Divergent perceptions between youth protesters and government.
  • Alleged foreign influence, potential for escalation.
  • Maintaining communal harmony while addressing grievances.
• Debates:
  • Statehood vs. autonomy – impact on administration & security.
  • Sixth Schedule – ensures tribal rights but may complicate governance.
  • Civil society leadership vs. radical youth actions.

Government / International Efforts

• May 2025 Agreement Highlights:
  • 95% local reservation in jobs (ST + EWS).  33% women representation in LAHDCs.  Strict domicile rules.
  • Recognition of local languages: Bhoti, Purgi, Balti, Shina.
• Security Measures: Increased surveillance; potential foreign interference flagged.
• Global Angle: Stability affects India’s China & Pakistan border management, aligns with UN principles on tribal autonomy.

Way Forward / Suggestions

• Short-term: Dialogue with youth and civil society; control violence; transparent communication.
•  Long-term:
  • Incremental political autonomy or legislative powers for LAHDCs.
  • Strengthen local employment, education.
  • Institutionalize conflict-resolution mechanisms.

Prelims Pointers

• Ladakh UT – Created 31 Oct 2019, no legislature.  Sixth Schedule – Tribal autonomy in Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Assam.
•   Key Bodies: LAB, KDA, LAHDCs.
•   Recognized Languages: Bhoti, Purgi, Balti, Shina.
•   Reservation: 95% local jobs; 33% women in LAHDCs.
•  Activist: Sonam Wangchuk (hunger strike participant).

Event:

• US President Donald Trump addressed the UN General Assembly (UNGA), dismissing climate change as a “greatest con job” and criticizing global climate policies.

Claims Made by Trump:

• Climate change is exaggerated; scientists changed from predicting global cooling to global warming.
• Europe’s carbon reduction efforts harmed industry and jobs.
• Renewable energy adoption (solar, wind) is economically destructive.

Scientific Facts Countering Claims:

• Global temperature dip (1945–70) due to sulphur emissions from coal, not “failed predictions.”
• IPCC (since 1988) provides peer-reviewed evidence on human-induced climate change.
• “Climate change” reflects disruptions in ocean currents and erratic weather, not just warming.

Underlying Motivation:

• Trump’s stance aligns with fossil fuel industry interests rather than scientific evidence.

Implications:

• Undermining science at global forums threatens multilateral climate cooperation.
• Political narratives can delay adoption of renewable energy and climate mitigation strategies.

Global/India Context:

• Paris Agreement (2015) aims to limit global warming to 1.5–2°C.
•  India promotes renewable energy (National Solar Mission) and meets Paris NDC targets.

Way Forward:

• Strengthen science-based global climate policy.  
• Promote green technology and employment.
• Counter misinformation to sustain global climate action

FOR FIRST CHINA SAYS WILL CUT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Headline/ News Context

• China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, announced for the first time a plan to achieve direct emission reductions, aiming to reduce emissions by 7–10% by 2035 compared with peak levels. President Xi Jinping also pledged to expand solar and wind energy capacity sixfold from 2020 levels by 2035, marking an acceleration in climate action.

Background / Static Linkage

• Global context: China accounts for nearly one- third of the world’s annual greenhouse gas emissions, estimated at 15.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, compared to the US (~6 billion tonnes) and India (~3 billion tonnes).
• Historical stance: Previously, China focused on emission intensity reduction (emissions per unit of GDP) rather than absolute reductions. China’s previous pledge aimed to peak CO2 emissions by 2030.
• International obligations: Under the Paris Agreement, countries submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years; China’s updated NDC for 2035 is pending.
• Geographical / resource linkage: China has significant solar and wind potential, with installed renewable capacity increasing from 530 GW in 2020 to around 1,600 GW currently.

Issue Analysis

• Importance: China’s emissions trajectory is critical for global climate targets. Global efforts to limit warming to 1.5–2°C depend on actions by major emitters like China.
• Challenges:
  • Absolute emissions are still rising slowly despite renewable energy expansion.
  • Economic growth vs. emission reduction trade-off.
  • Implementation across all sectors and all greenhouse gases, not just CO2.
• Debates:
  • Whether the announced 7–10% reduction is ambitious enough given global climate urgency.
  • Inclusion of all greenhouse gases vs. CO2- only focus.
  • Potential geopolitical and economic implications if China accelerates green energy leadership.

Government / International Efforts

• China’s domestic policies:
  • Renewable energy expansion (solar, wind).
  • Carbon trading pilot schemes in key provinces.
  • Energy efficiency standards and green technology subsidies.
• Global initiatives:
  • Paris Agreement (NDC updates every 5 years).
  • UN Climate Change efforts, highlighted by statements from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell.
• International cooperation: Potential for technology transfer, financing, and multilateral climate partnerships.

Way Forward / Conclusion

• China’s announcement signals a shift from intensity-based targets to absolute reductions, a crucial step for global climate mitigation.
• Implementation measures:
  • Broader sectoral coverage including industry, transport, and agriculture.
  • Strengthening monitoring and reporting mechanisms for emissions.
  • Regional and global cooperation for renewable energy technology and finance.
• UPSC relevance: Highlights the intersection of international relations, global environmental governance, and domestic energy policy.

Prelims Pointers

• Emission statistics (2024): China – 15.8 Bt CO2e; US – 6 Bt; India – 3 Bt.
• Installed renewable capacity: 530 GW in 2020 * 1,600 GW now; goal: 6× by 2035.
• Key frameworks: Paris Agreement, NDCs, Climate Action Tracker.
• Important personalities: Xi Jinping, Antonio Guterres, Simon Stiell.
• Institutions: UNFCCC, Climate Action Tracker, Chinese National Energy Administration.

LISTEN TO LADAKH

Headline / News Context

• Recent violence in Ladakh’s Union Territory resulted in four deaths, highlighting growing local discontent post-UT status. The Leh Apex Body and Kargil Democratic Alliance have come together, demanding greater empowerment, dialogue, and administrative reforms.

Background / Static Linkage

• Historical: Ladakh has a long record of loyalty and defense contributions to India — from 1947 skirmishes, 1962 Sino-Indian War, 1971 war, to Kargil in 1999. Figures like Colonel Chheang Rinchen and Sonam Wangchuk (army officer) symbolize local valor.
• Constitutional / Administrative: Became a Union Territory in 2019, removing Jammu & Kashmir’s administrative control; discussions on Sixth Schedule protections or legislative empowerment remain sensitive.
• Geographical / Strategic: Bordering China (Aksai Chin) and Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan), making security, ecology, and governance intricately linked.
• Cultural: Home to both Buddhist and Muslim communities; monasteries (Thiksey Monastery) and traditional livelihoods (pashmina) define local identity.

Issue Analysis

• Importance: Shows the fragility of India’s frontiers; post-UT status, local aspirations for greater self- governance, inclusion, and development have risen.
•  Challenges:
  • Balancing security, ecological sustainability, and local empowerment.
  • Managing collective leadership vs. individual personalities (e.g., Sonam Wangchuk) to avoid distrust.
• Preventing foreign or vested interests from exploiting political vacuums.
• Broader Implications: Failure to address these grievances risks instability in a strategically sensitive region and undermines India’s credibility in border governance.

Government/ International Efforts

• Policies / Initiatives:
  • UT administration with direct governance from Delhi, involving officers familiar with local context (e.g., S.D. Singh Jamwal).
  • Engagement with local bodies — Leh Apex Body, Kargil Democratic Alliance.
  • Promotion of sustainable development initiatives (e.g., renewable energy projects, green transition), with caution to preserve fragile ecosystems.
• Global Angle: Ladakh’s stability contributes to India’s position in Buddhist Asia and broader Himalayan geopolitical dynamics.

Way Forward / Conclusion

• Administrative: Strengthen Hill Councils; explore legislative empowerment via reformed UT model or Sixth Schedule adaptations.
• Socioeconomic: Protect pashmina industry, pastoral livelihoods, and fragile ecosystems alongside green energy initiatives.
• Political: Favor collective leadership over individual icons; maintain dialogue with youth, women, and remote hamlets.
• Ethical / Governance: Approach must be empathetic, imaginative, and inclusive, reflecting India’s constitutional and democratic ethos.