14 November 2025

• On October 30, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated the U.S. may restart nuclear testing, citing Russian and Chinese activities.
• Later clarifications said the U.S. may conduct only non-critical systems tests, but ambiguity persists.
• This comes when global arsenals have reduced from 65,000 (1970s) to ~12,500, yet strategic tensions are rising.
• The CTBT remains unenforced due to pending ratifications, and New START expires in Feb 2026 with no talks underway.
• Renewed testing could trigger a fresh nuclear arms race, impacting India’s deterrence equilibrium.

KEY POINTS

• Nuclear weapons have not been used since 1945, creating a global “nuclear taboo”.
• Only nine nuclear-armed states exist today.
• U.S., Russia, and China are advancing new nuclear systems—hypersonics, cruise missiles, low-yield warheads.
• CTBT bans nuclear explosions but lacks a defined “zero-yield” limit, enabling subcritical tests.
• CTBTO’s 300+ station network has detected no illegal tests.
• China’s arsenal is expanding rapidly (600 now → 1,000+ by 2030).
• If testing resumes, India and Pakistan may be compelled to validate past designs.
• A breakdown of norms could weaken the NPT-based non-proliferation regime.

STATIC LINKAGES

• NPT (1968): Non-proliferation, disarmament, peaceful nuclear uses.
• CTBT (1996): Prohibits nuclear explosions; pending entry into force. India’s
• Nuclear Doctrine (2003): NFU, Massive Retaliation, credible minimum deterrence.
• Deterrence Theory: Stability through MAD.
• CTBTO IMS: Global verification network.

CRITICAL ANALYSIS

• Positives
  • Revives debate on modernising global arms control.
  • Opens space for including new nuclear powers.
• Concerns
  • Higher risk of explosive testing and escalation.
  • Arms control architecture collapsing (ABM, INF gone; New START expiring).
  • Low-yield warheads increase usability.
  • India–Pakistan stability may be affected.
• Stakeholder views
  • U.S.: Wants technological advantage.
  • China/Russia: Likely to mirror U.S. moves.  
  • India: Concerned about China’s expansion.  
  • UN: Warns of high nuclear risks.

WAY FORWARD

• Restart U.S.–Russia dialogue before New START expiry.
• Strengthen and universalise CTBT with clearer definitions.
• Develop arms control norms for hypersonics, AI, cyber.
• Enhance CTBTO monitoring.
• India: maintain moratorium; strengthen simulation & subcritical capabilities.
• Promote global NFU and nuclear risk-reduction measures.

• Tamil Nadu has launched district-level decarbonisation plans under the Tamil Nadu Green Climate Company (TNGCC).
• Four pilot districts — Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Ramanathapuram, Virudhunagar — now have detailed GHG inventories and Net Zero pathways.
• A real-time Climate Action Tracker embeds climate action into local governance.
• The State targets Net Zero well before 2070, with some districts potentially reaching much earlier (Nilgiris by 2030).

Key Points

• TNGCC works through four missions: TNCCM, GTNM, TNWM, TN SHORE.
• Tamil Nadu contributed 7% of India’s emissions (2019); emission intensity reduced ~60% (2005–2019).
• Renewables: ~60% of installed capacity, ~30% electricity generation.
• Emission contributors by district:
• Nilgiris & Coimbatore: Road transport dominant
• Virudhunagar: Cement & industrial energy  Ramanathapuram: Electricity generation & rice cultivation
• Four districts can reduce emissions up to 92% by 2050 + sequester ~3 million tonnes CO₂e.
• State has 20 Ramsar sites; 30% land is protected.
• Key actions: EVs, waste management, afforestation, mangroves, industrial decarbonisation.

Static Linkages

• Decentralised governance & local planning under PRIs.
• Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) aligned with UNFCCC/IPCC.
• Ramsar Convention on wetland protection.
• NAPCC linkages with solar, energy efficiency, and ecosystem missions.
• Carbon sinks: forests, mangroves, wetlands.

Critical Analysis

• Strengths
  • First State with district-level climate planning.  Strong data-driven approach: GHG inventory + climate projections.
  • Integrates people, nature, and industry.
  • Enhances transparency through real-time tracking.
• Challenges
  • Industrialised districts face tougher decarbonisation.
  • Need sustained finance & capacity-building.
  • Lifestyle changes required in transport & energy consumption.
  • Greater industry coordination needed for decarbonisation.
• Stakeholder Views
  • State: Balanced growth + ecology.  Local bodies: Need skills & funds.
  • Communities: Crucial for waste, forests, mobility.
  • Industry: Requires tech + incentives.

Way Forward

• Scale plans to all 38 districts.
• Strengthen climate financing (Green Bonds, CSR).
• Rapid EV transition & green public transport.  Introduce local climate budgets.
• Expand mangrove & seascape restoration.
• Deploy GIS/AI tools for real-time monitoring.
• Promote agroforestry & carbon farming.

URGENT UPDATE

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• October CPI inflation fell to 0.25%, lowest since 2012.
• A –3.7% fall in food & beverages driven largely by a high base effect (9.7% in Oct 2024).
• Most other categories recorded higher inflation than last year.
• Households reported 7.4% perceived inflation, revealing a sharp CPI–reality gap.
• MoSPI plans new CPI series in Q1 of next FY.

Key Points

• CPI uses 2012 base year, now outdated.  Food weight of 46% skews the index.
• October’s fall is a statistical distortion, not a real price decline.
• GST rate-cut effect visible only in clothing & footwear.
• MPC relies on CPI for inflation targeting (4%±2%); anomalies create policy risks.

Static Linkages

• CPI compiled by MoSPI; WPI by DPIIT.
• Inflation targeting legalised via RBI Act amendment, 2016.
• CPI weights depend on NSS Consumption Survey.
• Base effect influences YoY inflation trends.  CPI used for DA revisions, poverty lines, welfare evaluation.

Critical Analysis

• Pros of CPI Update
  • Reflects modern consumption patterns and rising service share.
  • Reduces food-driven volatility.
  • Strengthens inflation targeting credibility.
• Concerns
  • HCES delays slowed revision.
  • Distorted inflation may misguide MPC rate decisions.
  • Public expectations diverge from official numbers.
  • Persistent food volatility weakens CPI reliability.
• Stakeholder Views
  • RBI: Needs cleaner data.
  • Consumers: CPI feels unrealistic.
  • Government: Risk of misaligned monetary– fiscal signals.
  • Businesses: Inflation misreading affects planning.

Way Forward

• Release updated CPI quickly.
• Rebalance weights toward services and urban consumption.
• Use digital high-frequency price data.
• Improve RBI communication on inflation.  
• Prioritise core inflation in analysis.

AMORAL EMBRACE

• A former jihadist commander captures power in a civil-war-hit state after regime collapse.
• Major powers rapidly normalise ties for strategic access and counter-terrorism goals.
• The new leadership faces allegations of past atrocities and ongoing sectarian abuses.
• Regional geopolitics shifts as neighbouring states reassess security alignments.

Key Points

• Rise of a militant-origin leader raises legitimacy and accountability concerns.
• Global realpolitik favours strategic cooperation over human rights.
• Persistent militant networks weaken the new state’s institutional capacity.
• Minority groups face vulnerability amid sectarian tensions and weak governance.

Static Linkages

• Principles of statehood (Montevideo Convention).
• UN Charter’s sovereignty and non-interference norms.
• Post-conflict reconstruction frameworks (DDR, peacebuilding).
• Concepts of legitimacy and authority in political theory.
• India’s foreign policy pillars: autonomy, stability, territorial integrity.

Critical Analysis

• Pros
  • May stabilise the region and reduce refugee flows.
  • Facilitates counter-terror cooperation.
  • Supports economic reintegration and humanitarian relief.
• Cons
  • Weakens global norms on accountability for war crimes.
  • Risks deepening sectarian divides.
  • Allows armed factions to retain influence.
  • Regional tensions may intensify due to shifting alliances.
• Stakeholder Perspectives
  • Major Powers: Strategic bases, counter-terror coordination.
  • Neighbours: Security concerns, spillover risks.  
  • Minorities: Fear reprisals, lack of justice.
  • Civil Society: Demands inclusivity and rights protection.
  • International Organisations: Monitoring and peacebuilding.
• Challenges
  • Delivering justice while maintaining stability.  
  • Disarming transnational militants.
  • Building inclusive governance in a polarised society.
  • Managing regional rivalries and external interference.

Way Forward

• UN-backed transitional justice mechanisms.
• Robust DDR program for armed groups.
• Institutional and constitutional safeguards for minorities.
• Human rights monitoring tied to aid.
• Regional security dialogue to prevent spillover.
• Gradual political reforms with international oversight

• North India continues to record Severe AQI, exposing chronic failures in environmental governance.
• Governments rely on symbolic measures (odd– even, smog towers) instead of structural reforms.
• Experts highlight political denial, elite indifference, weak regulators, and fragmented governance as key drivers.
• Pollution now reflects not just environmental failure but a deep political economy problem.

Key Points

• Air pollution remains a non-electoral issue; political incentives for reform are minimal.
• Regulatory landscape is fragmented—SPCBs, CPCB, municipalities, and CAQM operate with overlapping roles.
• Elite discourse shows symbolic respect for science but little support for evidence-based policy.
• Major contributors: crop burning, thermal plants with relaxed norms, unregulated construction, transport emissions, waste mismanagement.
• “Complexity” is used as a cover for political inaction; institutional capacity gaps are often deliberately created.

Static Linkages

• Art. 48A & 51A(g): Environmental protection duties.
• Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981 – regulatory powers of CPCB/SPCBs.
• 42nd Constitutional Amendment – expanded environmental responsibilities under the Concurrent List.
• NCAP – 40% PM reduction target by 2026.
• Polluter Pays & Precautionary Principles (SC jurisprudence).
• 74th Amendment – municipal responsibilities for waste, public health, urban planning.

Critical Analysis

• Opportunities
  • Strong civil society expertise (CSE, SFC).
  • Proven technological options: CEMS, cleaner kilns, EVs, waste processing.
  • Federal platforms exist for mission- mode coordination.
• Challenges
  • Political apathy due to low electoral salience.
  • Understaffed SPCBs and weak municipal powers.
  • Media capture reduces public pressure.
  • Contractors and vested interests drive urban design.
  • Ethical & Constitutional Dimensions  Art. 21: Right to clean air.
  • Equity concerns: poorest face highest exposure.
  • Ethical deficit: policy delay despite avoidable health costs.

Way Forward

• Activate Centre–State mission mode for crop burning reduction.
• Implement 74th Amendment to empower municipalities.
• Reinstate strict emission norms for thermal plants.
• Shift focus to measurable outcomes with real- time public dashboards.
• Make CAQM a transparent accountability forum with open hearings.
• Strengthen pollution regulators: staffing, labs, enforcement tech.
• Expand clean public transport; adopt congestion pricing.
• Integrate health-focused urban planning (TOD, walkability).
• Ensure policy coherence via pollution-impact assessments.

WOMEN AND MIGRANTS WILL SHAPE BIHAR’S FUTURE

Context of the News

• Bihar’s election is shaped by two pivotal shifts:  Rising dominance of women voters.
• Employment and migration emerging as core political themes.
• Politics is moving beyond caste–crime narratives toward welfare, mobility, and aspiration.
• Long-term drivers: post-Mandal politics, feminised welfare, and large-scale inter-state migration.

Key Points

• Women have outvoted men since 2015; in some seats, the gap is 8–10%.
• Expansion of a “maternal welfare state”: nutrition, education, SHGs, bicycles, Ujjwala, DBTs.
• 2–3 million Biharis migrate seasonally (MoLE).  
• Remittances fuel real estate, retail, smartphones, and town-level urbanisation.
• Nitish Kumar’s model expanded state capacity, PRIs participation, and women-led cooperatives.
• Youth face job scarcity despite rising aspirations.
• Migration, once a coping strategy, is now seen as an opportunity gap.

Static Linkages

• Directive Principles: Articles 38, 41, 46.
• 73rd Amendment → women’s PRI representation.
• Migration: push–pull theory.
• Social capital and local cooperatives.
• Demographic dividend and employment elasticity.

Critical Analysis

• Pros
  • Women’s political agency strengthens accountability.
  • Human capital gains from health, education, SHGs.
  • Remittances enhance consumption and local markets.
  • Reduced caste centrality in politics. Cons /
• Challenges
  • Low industrial base, weak job creation.
  • High dependence on migrant earnings.
  • Welfare gains not fully translating into economic autonomy.
  • Persistent caste-linked inequalities in mobility.
• Stakeholder Perspectives
  • Women: Want continuity + opportunities.  
  • Youth: Seek jobs and modernisation.
  • Migrants: Demand recognition and social security.
  • Government: Balancing welfare with growth.

Way Forward

• Build local job ecosystems: MSMEs, agro- processing, dairy chains.
• Skill development aligned with actual market demand.
• A comprehensive migration policy ensuring portability of benefits.
• Women’s economic integration beyond welfare: credit, micro-enterprise.
• Strengthen small-town urbanisation and industrial clusters.
• Improve digital governance and last-mile delivery.

NITHARI CASE COLLAPSE SHOWS SYSTEMIC GAP

Context of the News

• In 2006, discovery of human remains in Nithari exposed multiple disappearances of children and women.
• Moninder Singh Pandher and Surendra Koli were convicted and sentenced to death by lower courts.
• Allahabad HC (2023) acquitted Pandher for lack of evidence.
• Supreme Court (2025) has now acquitted Koli, calling the case a “manifest miscarriage of justice.”
• Judgment highlights custodial violations, weak forensics, and media-driven pressure.

Key Points

• Guilt not proven beyond reasonable doubt; investigation suffered serious lapses.
• Custodial irregularities: denial of counsel, torture allegations.
• Poor forensics: inconsistent recovery memos, no credible chain-of-custody.
• Media pressure distorted investigation quality.  Ignored victims: low-income families’ complaints dismissed for nearly a year.
• Reflects recurring pattern seen in Aarushi– Hemraj case.

Static Linkages

• Art. 21 & 22: Right to fair procedure, legal aid.
• Evidence Act Sec. 25 & 27: Police confessions inadmissible unless discovery is proven.
• CrPC 41, 167: Arrest and remand safeguards.
• DK Basu Guidelines: Mandatory custodial protections.
• Prakash Singh Reforms: Structural police reform.
• 2nd ARC – Public Order: Scientific investigation, forensic strengthening.

Critical Analysis

• Pros
  • Reinforces fair-trial jurisprudence.
  • Promotes scrutiny of investigative standards.
  • Reignites push for forensic modernization.
• Cons / Challenges
  • True perpetrators remain unidentified.  Public trust eroded.
  • Structural biases against poor victims persist.
  • Weak evidence-handling and poor training continue.
• Stakeholders
  • Victims: left without closure.
  • Police: face pressure, lack resources.
  • Judiciary: limited role in investigation quality.  Civil society: demands accountability.

Way Forward

• Implement Prakash Singh reforms.
• Strengthen DNA forensics and chain-of- custody norms.
• Ensure access to timely legal aid.  Mandate recorded interrogations.
• Create independent oversight for major crimes.
• Regulate media conduct in ongoing investigations.
• Upgrade police training in scientific methods.