Gunmen Kill 11 at Sydney Event | Courts Must Defend Free Speech | Time to Boost India–Ethiopia Ties | Time To Pause | An Anomaly | People-Led Climate Intelligence Movement | Are India’s Methane Emissions Missed | Ship Leasing Takes Off GIFT City | Why India’s FTAs Go Beyond Economics | India–Russia Ties: Rise and Fall | NHRC Order on Custody Death
GUNMEN KILL 11 AT SYDNEY EVENT- Terrorist attack on a Jewish Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach, Sydney.
- 11 killed, 29 injured, including police personnel.
- Attack occurred on the first day of Hanukkah, a major Jewish festival.
- Australian authorities confirmed it as a terrorist attack.
- Worst mass shooting in Australia since Port Arthur massacre, 1996.
- Part of a wider rise in antisemitic attacks globally after the Israel–Gaza war (Oct 2023).
- India and other global leaders strongly condemned the attack.
Key Points
- Automatic firearms used; suspected IEDs found.
- One attacker killed; another critically injured; third suspect probed.
- One attacker known to intelligence agencies earlier.
- About 1,000 people attended the event.
- Australia has strict gun laws; mass shootings are rare.
- Jewish population in Australia: ~1.17 lakh.
Static Linkages
- Terrorism as a non-state asymmetric threat.
- Religious freedom as a democratic and human right.
- Hate crimes undermining social cohesion.
- Intelligence failure vs. civil liberties dilemma.
- Spillover of international conflicts into domestic security.
- India’s doctrine of zero tolerance to terrorism.
Critical Analysis
- Strengths
- Quick police response and emergency coordination.
- Strong political condemnation and global solidarity.
- Concerns
- Intelligence lapse despite prior knowledge of attacker.
- Rising religious extremism and hate speech.
- Vulnerability of soft targets like religious events.
- Risk of social polarisation.
Way Forward
- Improve preventive intelligence and profiling.
- Secure religious and cultural gatherings
- Counter online radicalisation and hate speech.
- Strengthen community policing and social dialogue.
- Enhance international counter-terror cooperation.
COURTS MUST DEFEND FREE SPEECH
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- In Ranveer Allahbadia vs Union of India & Ors., the Supreme Court raised concerns over online content regulation.
- On November 27, 2025, the Court remarked that self-styled bodies are inadequate and suggested neutral, autonomous regulators.
- It also advised the Union government to publish draft regulatory guidelines and invite public comments.
- Earlier, on March 3, 2025, the Court expanded the case’s scope to examine regulation of content “offensive to moral standards”.
- These observations triggered debate on judicial overreach, separation of powers, and free speech.
Key Points
- India already has extensive legal provisions regulating speech and online conduct.
- IT (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021 create a centralised oversight mechanism.
- The Rules impose vague standards like “due caution and discretion”, amounting to prior restraint.
- Judicial push for further regulation risks constitutional overreach and chilling effects on speech.
- Regulation of content policy traditionally lies within the legislative domain.
Static Linkages
- Fundamental rights are subject only to reasonable restrictions expressly enumerated.
- Separation of powers limits judicial involvement in law-making.
- Prior restraint is constitutionally disfavoured.
- Courts act as constitutional arbiters, not policy designers.
- Democratic systems prefer post- publication remedies.
Critical Analysis
- Concerns
- Expanding the scope beyond the original dispute weakens judicial discipline.
- “Moral standards of society” is vague and constitutionally unsafe.
- Additional restrictions beyond Article 19(2) violate settled precedent (Kaushal Kishor, 2023).
- Judicially prompted regulation may legitimise pre-censorship.
- Courts lack institutional capacity for complex digital governance.
- Counter-view
- Judiciary responding to regulatory gaps and social harms.
- Emphasis on public consultation shows procedural caution.
Way Forward
- Strict adherence to Article 19(2).
- Prefer content removal after due process, not prior restraint.
- Any new regulation must follow parliamentary debate.
- Ensure narrow, clear, and proportionate standards.
- Judicial restraint in policy advocacy.
- Learn from democracies focusing on enforcement, not censorship.
TIME TO BOOST INDIA-ETHIOPIA TIES
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali at the G-20 Summit in Johannesburg, signalling renewed momentum in bilateral ties.
- Ethiopia (population ~109 million, 2024) is a key political and economic anchor in the Horn of Africa and hosts the African Union headquarters.
- Ethiopia’s post-conflict reconstruction phase and BRICS membership create scope for deeper strategic and economic engagement with India.
Key Points
- Geostrategic Importance: Ethiopia shapes Red Sea and East African security despite being landlocked; seeks diversified sea access via Djibouti, Somaliland, and Eritrea.
- Economic Profile: One of Africa’s fastest- growing economies with a large domestic market, manufacturing base, and major hydropower potential.
- Education Cooperation:
- Over a century of Indian role in Ethiopian education.
- Pilot country for Pan-African e-Network Project (2007).
- Highest number of African PhD students in India.
- Investment:
- Indian investments exceed USD 4 billion since 2006 LoCs.
- High potential in gold, critical minerals, and rare earths.
- Defence Cooperation:
- Military ties since 1956 (Harar Military Academy).
- New Defence MoU and Joint Defence Cooperation Committee in 2024.
- Trade & Regional Access:
- AfCFTA enables Ethiopia-based Indian firms to access continental markets.
- India’s DFTP scheme supports Ethiopian exports.
Static Linkages
- South–South Cooperation Lines of Credit as development diplomacy
- Strategic constraints of landlocked states
- Energy security and critical minerals
- Diaspora-led economic engagement
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Secures critical mineral supply chains for India’s green transition.
- Defence exports support Atmanirbhar Bharat.
- Education cooperation strengthens India’s soft power.
- Ethiopia as a manufacturing hub under AfCFTA.
- Challenges
- Political fragility and post-conflict recovery.
- Foreign exchange shortages and regulatory uncertainty.
- Infrastructure and logistics bottlenecks.
- IMF conditionalities limiting fiscal space.
Way Forward
- Update DTAA and Bilateral Investment Treaty.
- Structured mining partnerships with sustainability norms.
- Expand digital education and skill development.
- Calibrated defence Lines of Credit within IMF rules.
- Use BRICS and G-20 platforms for development finance.
- Address forex constraints through institutional mechanisms.
TIME TO PAUSE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- Retail inflation (CPI) fell to 0.7% in Nov 2025, the second-lowest ever; Oct 2025 recorded the lowest.
- The fall is driven mainly by high base effects and food price contraction.
- RBI MPC cut repo rate to 5.25% in Dec 2025 after cumulative 125 bps cuts in 2025.
- A new CPI series (base year 2024) is expected in FY 2026–27.
- Debate on whether the MPC should pause rate cuts in Feb 2026.
Key Points
- Base Effect:
- Inflation in Oct–Nov 2024 was 6.2% and 5.5%.
- High base suppresses current inflation; effect likely to fade by mid-2026.
- CPI Skew:
- Food & beverages ~46% weight in CPI.
- Food prices fell 2.8% (Nov 2025), pulling down headline inflation.
- Decline is largely statistical, not structural.
- CPI Revision:
- Base year shift from 2012 to 2024.
- Reweighted basket to reflect current consumption.
- Food’s dominance expected to reduce.
- Monetary Policy:
- Sharp easing already done; transmission still unfolding.
- Case for pause to assess growth, Budget 2026 impact, and new CPI.
Static Linkages
- CPI uses Laspeyres index.
- Importance of base year revision in price indices.
- Central bank mandate of price stability with growth.
- Lagged transmission of monetary policy.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Low inflation eases household pressure.
- Rate cuts support growth amid slowdown.
- CPI rebasing improves data credibility.
- Concerns
- Disinflation driven by temporary base effects.
- High food weight distorts inflation signal.
- Further cuts risk policy overreach.
Way Forward
- Pause rate cuts until base effects normalize.
- Evaluate post-Budget fiscal impact.
- Closely track core inflation.
- Use new CPI series for recalibrating policy.
AN ANOMALY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- The Union Environment Ministry informed Parliament that Punjab and Haryana reduced farm fire incidences by 90% in 2025 compared to 2022, based on satellite fire counts.
- Crop residue (stubble) burning, mainly of paddy, is linked to severe October–November air pollution in Delhi-NCR.
- Governments adopted a carrot-and-stick approach: fines, subsidised machinery, and incentives for biomass utilisation.
- Independent analysis using burnt-area data and geostationary satellites shows only a ~30% reduction in actual burned land, with fires shifting to evening hours.
- The Supreme Court (2024) directed authorities to assess burnt area, but official year-wise data remain unpublished.
Key Points
- Government claims rely on active fire counts from polar-orbiting satellites with limited daytime coverage.
- Burnt area better reflects the true scale of burning and pollution impact.
- Geostationary satellites show temporal shifting of fires to avoid detection.
- Different satellite resolutions create uncertainty in true fire estimates.
- Lack of transparent data risks misleading policy evaluation.
Static Linkages
- Biomass burning as a source of particulate pollution
- Remote sensing and environmental monitoring Federal environmental governance
- Precautionary principle and public trust doctrine
Critical Analysis
- Strengths
- Expansion of residue-management machinery Biomass co-firing in thermal plants
- Judicial push for scientific assessment
- Limitations
- Over-reliance on fire counts instead of burnt area
- Farmers adapting behaviour to evade monitoring
- Weak transparency despite court directions
- Governance Issues
- Data selectivity erodes public trust
- Policy outcomes overstated without robust metrics
Way Forward
- Publish annual burnt-area estimates using multiple satellites
- Integrate geostationary + polar satellite data
- Ensure assured economic returns for residue collection
- Promote crop diversification beyond paddy
- Enable independent scientific audits of pollution claims
NHRC ORDER ON CUSTODY DEATH- The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) ordered ₹10 lakh compensation to the family of a man who died in police custody (2021).
- The order comes amid persistent concerns over custodial deaths:
- 4,400+ custodial deaths (2020–2022) nationwide.
- Uttar Pradesh: 952 deaths (highest).
- The decision gains significance as NHRC’s international accreditation was deferred (2024) due to concerns over transparency and appointments.
Key Points
- Custodial deaths include deaths in police and judicial custody.
- NHRC recommendations are advisory, not binding.
- Status of Policing in India Report 2025:
- Survey of 8,276 police personnel across 17 States/UTs.
- Shows notable acceptance of coercive policing methods.
- Gujarat State Law Commission (2023) termed rising custodial deaths a serious public concern.
- NHRC was established under the Protection of Human Rights Act, 1993.
Static Linkages
- Article 21: Right to Life and Personal Liberty. DK Basu vs State of West Bengal (1997):
- Mandatory safeguards against custodial torture.
- Protection of Human Rights Act, 1993:
- NHRC can investigate, recommend compensation, and suggest reforms.
- UNCAT:
- India is a signatory, not a ratifying state.
- 2nd ARC (5th Report):
- Emphasised police accountability and oversight.
Critical Analysis
- Significance
- Reaffirms human dignity in state custody.
- Signals accountability to law enforcement agencies.
- Helps restore NHRC’s normative relevance.
- Limitations
- Orders are non-enforceable.
- Compensation does not ensure criminal accountability.
- Weak enforcement, political sensitivity, and absence of an anti-torture law persist.
Way Forward
- Enact a standalone anti-custodial torture law.
- Make NHRC recommendations time-bound and enforceable.
- Reform NHRC appointments for independence and diversity.
- Strengthen police training, CCTV coverage, and independent inquiries.
- Enhance judicial and parliamentary oversight.
PEOPLE -LED CLIMATE INTELLIGENCE MOVEMENT- Under the Paris Agreement, countries must track emissions, adaptation and climate finance through robust MRV systems.
- COP30 reinforced this via the Global Implementation Tracker, Belém Mission to 1.5°C, and indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation.
- India has stressed that stronger domestic MRV is vital for transparency and access to climate finance, while developing countries need financial and technical support.
- Tamil Nadu’s Community-based MRV (CbMRV) initiative integrates community-generated environmental data into formal climate governance.
- Piloted since 2023 under the UK PACT programme, it marks a shift towards bottom- up climate intelligence.
Key Points
- CbMRV enables villages to produce science- ready, local-scale environmental data often missed by remote sensing.
- Combines traditional ecological knowledge with monitoring of rainfall, temperature, soil and water health, biodiversity, fisheries, crops, livelihoods and carbon stocks.
- Implemented across three landscapes:
- Aracode (Nilgiris) – forest and tribal systems
- Vellode (Erode) – agriculture and wetlands
- Killai (Cuddalore) – mangroves and coastal fisheries
- Data feeds into a digital dashboard used at village, district and State levels.
- 35 Key Community Stakeholders (KCS) trained as community climate stewards. Carbon feasibility studies show scope for community-centred carbon projects.
- Supports State initiatives such as SAPCC, Tamil Nadu Climate Tracker, Green Tamil Nadu Mission and coastal adaptation planning.
Static Linkages
- Decentralisation and participatory governance.
- Sustainable development and intergenerational equity.
- Community-based natural resource management.
- Climate adaptation as a development challenge.
- Integration of indigenous and scientific knowledge systems.
Critical Analysis
- Strengths
- Democratises climate governance and improves data granularity.
- Strengthens evidence for climate finance and carbon markets.
- Builds a local green workforce and supports just transition goals.
- Challenges
- Long-term financing and institutionalisation.
- Ensuring data quality, standardisation and scalability.
- Sustaining community engagement over time.
- Ethical Dimension
- Advances climate justice by empowering frontline communities most affected by climate change.
Way Forward
- Integrate CbMRV with national MRV and Biennial Transparency Reports.
- Institutionalise training via ITIs, Panchayat Raj institutions and State skill missions.
- Create funding windows for community-led adaptation and MRV.
- Develop national standards for community-generated climate data.
ARE INDIA’S METHANE EMISSIONS MISSED
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Methane, 84 times more potent than CO₂ over 20 years, fuels landfill fires and accelerates climate change (IPCC).
- About 15% of India’s methane emissions come from the waste sector.
- ISRO (2023) used satellite data to identify major methane-emitting landfills such as Ghazipur, Bhalswa, Pirana, Deonar, and Kanjurmarg.
- The National Green Tribunal (NGT) constituted committees for ground verification.
- New satellite missions (CarbonMapper, SRON, ClimateTRACE) reveal large gaps between model-based estimates and real emissions.
- Waste-sector methane mitigation is emerging as a low-cost, high-impact climate opportunity.
Key Points
- Methane is generated by anaerobic decomposition of organic waste in landfills.
- Traditional estimates rely on outdated, aggregated waste data and emission models.
- Global studies show landfill methane emissions can be ~1.8 times higher than model estimates.
- India-specific discrepancies:
- Delhi: Two landfills emit nearly as much methane as the city’s entire estimated waste sector (2018).
- Mumbai: Kanjurmarg landfill emissions are ~10 times model estimates.
- Ahmedabad: Pirana landfill alone rivals Gujarat’s total waste-sector estimate.
- Satellite data types:
- Regional monitoring (frequent, km- scale).
- High-resolution hotspot detection (site-specific action).
Static Linkages
- Methane classified as a Short-Lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP) (IPCC).
- Solid Waste Management Rules, 2016 mandate scientific landfilling and gas capture.
- Swachh Bharat Mission (Urban) promotes biomethanation and landfill remediation.
- Gobardhan Scheme supports waste-to- biogas/Bio-CNG.
- Paris Agreement emphasises robust MRV systems.
Critical Analysis
- Opportunities
- Satellites enable rapid identification of methane hotspots.
- Waste-sector action yields immediate climate benefits.
- Supports targeted, evidence-based interventions.
- Co-benefits: cleaner cities, fire prevention, energy recovery.
- Challenges
- Satellite data limited by cloud cover and weather.
- Lack of updated, city-level waste data.
- Institutional silos between ULBs and SPCBs.
- Weak on-ground capacity for quick response.
Way Forward
- Expand nationwide satellite methane monitoring of landfills.
- Create ground-validation teams in major cities.
- Develop a centralised methane data portal linking ULBs and regulators.
- Integrate methane reduction targets into Swachh Bharat Mission.
- Scale up biomethanation and landfill gas-to- energy projects.
- Use satellite–ground feedback loops for performance-based urban incentives.
SHIP LEASING TAKES OFF GIFT CITY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- Ship leasing at GIFT City IFSC has expanded rapidly within two years of launch.
- As of October 2025, 27 ship-leasing entities operate from GIFT IFSC.
- The number of vessels leased or purchased has doubled to 30 in one year.
- India now has its first regulator-monitored ship-leasing framework, overseen by IFSCA.
- The move signals a shift of maritime finance from offshore hubs to an Indian jurisdiction.
Key Points
- Asset Profile
- Total leased asset value: $1.47 billion.
- Bulk carriers dominate (43%): 13 vessels (75,500–106,000 DWT).
- Largest vessel: 150,000 DWT Suezmax crude oil tanker.
- Other vessels: Ethane carriers (6), container ships (5), LPG tankers (3), product tanker (1).
- Flag Mix
- 17 Indian-flagged vessels.
- Foreign flags: Marshall Islands, Panama, Portugal, Singapore.
- Financial Ecosystem
- Nine entities raised $71.1 million from GIFT- based institutions.
- Capital norms:
- $200,000 (operating lease) $3 million (financial/hybrid lease)
- Transactions allowed in freely convertible foreign currencies.
- Comparative Insight
- Aviation leasing remains larger (253 assets leased).
- Unified regulation for aviation and shipping under IFSCA is globally rare.
Static Linkages
- Maritime Trade: ~95% of India’s trade by volume moves by sea.
- IFSC Framework: Enabled under SEZ Act, 2005; IFSCA set up under IFSCA Act, 2019.
- Ship Registry: India follows a closed registry system.
- Policy Alignment: Maritime India Vision 2030, Sagarmala, Blue Economy, Atmanirbhar Bharat.
- Infrastructure Finance: Infrastructure status enables cheaper long-term capital.
Critical Analysis
- Advantages
- Reduces reliance on offshore leasing hubs.
- Improves regulatory oversight and financial transparency.
- Supports Indian shipyards and domestic maritime capacity.
- Positions India as a combined aviation–maritime leasing hub.
- Challenges
- Closed ship registry reduces global flexibility.
- SEZ Rule 29B creates procedural hurdles for short-term charters.
- Delays in ship mortgage creation and enforcement.
- Shipping lacks full infrastructure sub-sector status.
- Limited clarity on ancillary services (broking, management, container leasing).
Way Forward
- Notify shipping as an infrastructure sub-sector. Simplify SEZ rules for ship leasing transactions.
- Speed up mortgage registration and enforcement. Enable ancillary maritime services in IFSC.
- Align reforms with Maritime India Vision 2030.
WHY INDIA’S FTAs GO BEYONG ECONOMICS
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- India is negotiating multiple FTAs/RTAs with countries such as New Zealand, Oman, Chile, Israel, Canada, alongside existing agreements with ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Australia, UAE.
- This push comes amid WTO paralysis, global trade fragmentation, and shifting Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
- Evidence from India’s older RTAs shows limited trade gains, raising questions about their primary purpose.
- Growing US–China rivalry and uncertainty around the QUAD have altered the role of trade agreements globally.
Key Points
- India has ~18 RTAs/PTAs in force across regions.
- Only 8 include services, despite India’s strength in services exports.
- Analysis of RTAs with ASEAN, Japan, and Korea shows:
- No meaningful rise in India’s intra-RTA trade share.
- Focus on commodities where partner tariffs were already low.
- Services liberalisation remains weak, except partial progress with Singapore and South Korea.
- RTAs increasingly serve as:
- Platforms for WTO-plus issues (investment, digital trade).
- Instruments of foreign policy and strategic alignment.
- MEA’s role in trade agreements is expanding alongside the Commerce Ministry.
Static Linkages
- RTAs permitted under GATT Article XXIV and GATS Article V.
- Trade creation vs trade diversion theory explains limited net gains.
- Services form ~55% of India’s GDP and ~40% of exports (Economic Survey).
- WTO stalemate has accelerated bilateralism and regionalism.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Provide strategic insurance in an unstable global order.
- Enable cooperation beyond WTO limits.
- Strengthen geopolitical partnerships.
- Cons
- Weak trade creation for India.
- Manufacturing faces import pressure and rules-of-origin misuse.
- India’s services advantage remains underleveraged.
- Multilateral trade system gets further fragmented.
Way Forward
- Prioritise deep services commitments, especially Mode-4 mobility.
- Tighten rules of origin and safeguard mechanisms.
- Conduct ex-post impact assessments of RTAs.
- Align trade policy with domestic industrial and export strategies.
- Balance geopolitical goals with clear economic outcomes.
INDIA- RUSSIA TIES: RISE AND FALL
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- The 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit (December) reaffirmed political continuity amid global instability.
- Outcomes were limited, with no major defence or strategic deals announced.
- Agreements focused on pharmaceutical and fertiliser joint ventures and people-to-people exchanges.
- The summit reflected both resilience and stagnation in the bilateral relationship.
Key Points
- Political Engagement
- Regular high-level contacts continue, signalling diplomatic stability.
- Economic Engagement
- Russia sees India as a safe economic destination amid Western sanctions.
- A strong Russian delegation from economic and banking sectors attended.
- Financial Integration
- Five Russian banks operate in India
- Russian Central Bank to open a Mumbai branch by 2026.
- Rupee–rouble settlements have expanded significantly.
- Trade Profile
- Bilateral trade has surged due to Russian crude oil imports.
- Trade remains imbalanced and oil-centric.
- Defence Cooperation
- No new announcements; talks remain ongoing amid geopolitical sensitivities linked to Ukraine.
Static Linkages
- Strategic partnerships and India’s multi- alignment doctrine.
- Energy security as a component of national security.
- Defence indigenisation and technology transfer.
- Use of alternative financial systems under sanctions pressure.
Critical Analysis
- Positives
- Enduring trust from Cold War-era ties.
- Energy cooperation supports short-term energy security.
- Growing financial integration reduces dollar dependence.
- Concerns
- Lack of diversification beyond hydrocarbons.
- No clarity on future strategic domains.
- Sanctions-related financial and reputational risks.
Way Forward
- Diversify trade into technology, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and critical minerals.
- Revive defence ties via joint development aligned with Atmanirbhar Bharat.
- Strengthen institutional mechanisms for currency settlements.
- Identify new cooperation areas beyond traditional sectors
