17 June 2026

• India recorded a 35% rainfall deficit by mid June 2026.
• Southwest Monsoon advance has stalled over Maharashtra, Konkan Coast and Central India. IMD revised seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of Long Period Average (LPA) with a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon.
• Emergence of El Niño conditions has increased concerns regarding agriculture, food inflation and water security.
• Centre directed States to prepare district-wise crop contingency plans and monitor vulnerable regions.

Key Facts

Rainfall Deficit – RegionRainfall Departure

• Northwest India ———– +5%
• East & Northeast India —— −43%
• Central India ———— −61%
• Southern Peninsula ——– −14%
• All-India ——————— −35%

Government Response

• 150–200 districts under priority monitoring.
• Weekly review of El Niño developments.
• Crop-wise contingency planning.
• Promotion of cotton and pulses cultivation.
• Adequate seed and fertilizer availability.

Reservoir Status

• Reservoir storage (May 2026): 30.4%
• Average storage during previous El Niño years: 25.1%

El Niño Forecast

• NOAA: 63% probability of very strong El Niño by winter.
• WMO: 80% probability of El Niño development during June–August.
• IMD:
  • El Niño conditions established.
  • Ocean-atmosphere coupling confirmed.
  • No positive Indian Ocean Dipole expected.

Static Linkages

El Niño 

• Periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Generally associated with:
  • Weak Indian Monsoon
  • Drought conditions
  • Agricultural stress

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

• Difference in sea surface temperatures between western and eastern Indian Ocean.
• Positive IOD can reduce adverse impacts of El Niño.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

• Eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance in tropical regions.
• Influences monsoon onset and rainfall distribution.

Long Period Average (LPA)

• Benchmark average rainfall used by IMD.
• Deficient rainfall: Below 90% of LPA.

Major Kharif Crops

• Rice
• Cotton
• Maize
• Soybean
• Groundnut
• Pulses

Critical Analysis

Opportunities

• Higher reservoir storage compared to previous El Niño years.
• Better preparedness through contingency planning.
• Availability of agricultural inputs.
• Scope for crop diversification. 

Challenges

• Delayed sowing of Kharif crops.
• Reduced agricultural productivity.
• Risk of food inflation.
• Lower groundwater recharge.
• Stress on rainfed agriculture.
• Adverse impact on rural incomes.

Way Forward

• Promote drought-resistant crop varieties.
• Expand micro-irrigation coverage.
• Strengthen PM Fasal Bima Yojana.
• Improve real-time weather advisories.
• Enhance groundwater and reservoir management.
• Encourage climate-resilient agriculture.
• Strengthen Centre-State coordination for contingency planning

WORLD FACES TRUST DEFICIT: MODI

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

• PM Narendra Modi participated in the G7 Outreach Session at Evian, France.
• Theme: “Forging New Partnerships and Rebuilding International Solidarity”.
• Partner countries invited: India, Brazil, Egypt, Kenya, South Korea.
• India emphasized the need to rebuild global trust and strengthen cooperation with the Global South.
• PM Modi held bilateral meetings with leaders of the USA, Canada, UK, and UAE.

Key Points

India’s Position

• “Trust deficit” is a major challenge in global governance.
• Advocated moving beyond the donor-recipient model towards equal partnerships.
• Highlighted India’s development cooperation in:
  • Africa
  • Capacity building
  • Agriculture
  • Water management
  • Energy sector
  • Skill development

Global South

• India reiterated its role as a voice of the Global South.
• Emphasized partnership-based development rather than aid-based development.

Development Finance

• India did not join the communiqué on restructuring the global development finance ecosystem.
• Joined international initiatives on:
  • Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak response
  • Global cancer-control roadmap

India–Canada

• Discussions on:
  • Trade
  • Technology
  • Energy security
  • FTA negotiations
• Uranium supply agreement:
  • Canada’s Cameco and India’s Department of Atomic Energy
  • CAD 2.6 billion
  • Supply period: 2027–2035

India–UK

• Focus on operationalising the India–UK Free Trade Agreement.
• Strengthening trade and investment ties.

India–UAE

• Discussion on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
• Focus on:
  • Energy security
  • Indian diaspora welfare
  • Regional stability in West Asia

Prelims Facts

G7

• Informal grouping of advanced economies.
• Members:
  • Canada
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
• European Union participates but is not counted as a member.
• No charter, treaty, or permanent secretariat. 

Global South

• Refers to developing and emerging economies of:
  • Asia
  • Africa
  • Latin America
  • Oceania

Bundibugyo Ebola Virus

• Species of Ebola virus first identified in Uganda (2007).
• Causes Ebola Virus Disease (EVD).

Mains Enrichment

Significance for India

• Strengthens India’s role as a bridge between developed and developing nations.
• Enhances India’s diplomatic profile in global governance.
• Supports India’s aspiration for greater representation in international institutions.
• Expands strategic partnerships in trade, energy, technology, and development cooperation.

Challenges

• Persistent trust deficit in global governance.
• Unequal representation of developing countries in global institutions.
• Divergent interests between developed and developing economies.
• Geopolitical rivalries affecting multilateral cooperation.

Way Forward

• Promote inclusive and reformed multilateralism.
• Strengthen South-South Cooperation.
• Expand development partnerships in Africa.
• Advocate reforms in global financial institutions.
• Enhance cooperation in health security, climate finance, and sustainable development.

FROM WAR TO DEAL IN WEST ASIA

• The United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire after a period of military confrontation.
• Negotiations have begun on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and regional security issues.
• The development has significant implications for West Asian stability, global energy security, and India’s strategic interests.

Key Points

U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

• Shift from military confrontation to diplomatic engagement.
• Focus on:
  • Nuclear negotiations.
  • Sanctions relief.
  • Regional stability.

Strait of Hormuz

• Connects the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
• One of the world’s most important maritime energy chokepoints.
• Critical for global oil and LNG trade.

Israel–Iran Rivalry

• Continues to be a major source of instability in West Asia.
• Linked to Iran-backed groups:
  • Hezbollah (Lebanon)
  • Houthis (Yemen)
  • Iraqi militias

Gulf Region

• Conflict exposed security and economic vulnerabilities.
• Internal divisions among Gulf countries remain significant.

Major Power Competition

• China seeks greater influence in West Asia.
• Russia benefits from diversion of U.S. strategic attention.
• Reflects an emerging multipolar world order.

Implications for India

• Energy security concerns.
• Protection of maritime trade routes.
• Safety of Indian diaspora in Gulf countries.
• Need for strategic autonomy and multi alignment.

Static Linkages

• Strategic chokepoints and maritime trade.
• Energy security and economic stability.
• Balance of Power.
• Strategic Autonomy.
• Non-State Actors in international relations.
• Regional Security Architecture.
• Freedom of Navigation under international law.
• Multipolarity in world politics.

Critical Analysis

Significance

• Demonstrates limits of military solutions.
• Highlights importance of political settlements.
• Reduces immediate threat to global energy supplies.
• Supports stability in maritime trade.

Challenges

• Israel–Iran tensions remain unresolved.
• Continued role of proxy groups.
• Risk of future disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Absence of a comprehensive regional security framework.

India’s Concerns

• Oil price volatility.
• Trade disruptions.
• Impact on remittances and diaspora welfare.
• Expanding Chinese influence in West Asia.

Way Forward

• Promote diplomatic conflict resolution.
• Strengthen regional security dialogue.
• Diversify energy import sources.
• Expand Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR).
• Enhance maritime security cooperation.
• Maintain strategic autonomy and multi alignment
• Strengthen engagement with all major West Asian stakeholders.

• U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary peace memorandum to reduce tensions in West Asia.
• Aims to revive diplomatic engagement, address the nuclear issue, and reduce regional instability.
• Raises questions regarding Israel’s response and the future regional security architecture.

Why in News?

• Marks a significant diplomatic breakthrough after decades of:
  • Economic sanctions.
  • Proxy conflicts.
  • Military confrontations.
  • Nuclear-related disputes.

Key Developments

U.S.–Iran Dimension

• Revival of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
• Possibility of sanctions relief.
• Focus on regional stability and maritime security.

Israel’s Position

• Considers Iran a major strategic and security threat.
• Opposed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), 2015.
• Concerned about:
  • Expansion of Iranian regional influence.
  • Strengthening of Iran-backed groups.

Regional Trends 

• Growing preference for de-escalation in West Asia.
• Saudi Arabia–Iran rapprochement (2023) reflects changing regional priorities.
• Increased emphasis on:
  • Economic development.
  • Regional connectivity.
  • Political stability.

Important Static Points

JCPOA (2015)

• Agreement between Iran and P5+1.
  Objective:
  • Limit Iran’s nuclear activities.
  • Ensure IAEA monitoring.
  • Provide sanctions relief.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

• Entered into force: 1970.
• Iran: Signatory.
• Israel: Not a signatory.
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
• Headquarters: Vienna, Austria.
• Function:
  • Nuclear safeguards.
  • Verification and inspections.
  • Promotion of peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

Strategic Maritime Chokepoints

• Strait of Hormuz.
• Bab-el-Mandeb.
• Suez Canal.
• Strait of Malacca.

Significance for India

• Ensures stability in a key energy-supplying region.
• Supports:
  • Energy security.
  • Safety of Indian diaspora.
  • Chabahar Port development.
  • International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Challenges

• Trust deficit between U.S. and Iran.
• Israel’s security concerns.
• Presence of regional proxy conflicts.
• Domestic political opposition in both countries.
• Risk of disruption due to geopolitical tensions.

Way Forward

• Strengthen IAEA-led verification.
• Promote sustained diplomatic engagement.
• Encourage regional security dialogue.
• Enhance maritime security cooperation.
• Support peaceful conflict resolution in West Asia.
• Strengthen multilateral diplomacy through the UN framework

LIMITS OF AMERICA

Context of the News

• The U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to end hostilities and begin negotiations on a permanent settlement.
• The agreement seeks to:
  • End military confrontation.
  • Restore maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.
  • Resume negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
  • Discuss sanctions relief and release of frozen Iranian assets.
• The development marks a shift from military confrontation to diplomatic engagement in West Asia.

Key Points

• The MoU is a framework agreement, not a final peace treaty.
• Future negotiations will focus on:
  • Iran’s uranium enrichment programme.
  • Nuclear inspections and verification.
  • Sanctions removal.
  • Regional security architecture.
• The agreement highlights the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy security.
• The episode reinforces the limitations of military solutions in resolving nuclear disputes.

Static Linkages

Strait of Hormuz:

• • Connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. 
  • One of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
• Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitors nuclear safeguards and inspections.
• Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), 2015:
  • Agreement between Iran and P5+1 countries.
  • Linked nuclear restrictions with sanctions relief.
• Maritime security is governed by principles under UNCLOS.

Critical Analysis

Significance

• Reduces the risk of a wider regional conflict.
• Enhances global energy market stability.
• Ensures smoother maritime trade through critical sea lanes.
• Creates an opportunity for a diplomatic resolution of the nuclear issue.

Challenges

• Deep strategic mistrust between the U.S. and Iran.
• Differences over uranium enrichment limits.
• Possibility of disruption by regional actors.
• Sanctions-relief mechanisms remain contentious.
• Long-term implementation and verification challenges.

Way Forward

• Resume comprehensive nuclear negotiations under IAEA oversight.
• Establish phased and verifiable compliance mechanisms.
• Promote regional security dialogue involving Gulf countries.
• Ensure uninterrupted freedom of navigation in international waters.
• Encourage multilateral diplomacy through the United Nations.
• Balance sanctions relief with measurable nuclear commitments. 

PRIMED TO TREAT

• Kerala reported a confirmed Nipah Virus (NiV) case in Kozhikode during the 2026 monsoon season.
• Intensive contact tracing, isolation, and surveillance have prevented further spread.
• WHO classifies Nipah as a Priority Pathogen due to its high fatality rate and outbreak potential.
• Kerala has witnessed Nipah outbreaks in 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.
• Earlier in January 2026, two Nipah cases were reported in West Bengal and were successfully contained.

Key Points for Prelims

Nipah Virus (NiV)

• Virus Family: Paramyxoviridae
• Genus: Henipavirus
• Type: Zoonotic viral disease
• Natural Reservoir: Fruit bats (Pteropus genus/Flying Foxes)

Transmission

• Bat → Human (contaminated fruits, palm sap, water sources)
• Animal → Human
• Human → Human (close contact with infected person)

Symptoms

• Fever
• Headache
• Acute respiratory illness
• Encephalitis (brain inflammation)
• Altered consciousness/coma

Case Fatality Rate (WHO)

• Approximately 40–75%

India: Major Outbreaks – YearLocation

• 2001 – Siliguri, West Bengal
• 2007 – Nadia, West Bengal
• 2018 – Kozhikode, Kerala
• 2019–2026 – Sporadic cases/outbreaks in Kerala

Why Kerala is Vulnerable?

• Human encroachment into forest ecosystems.
• High human-wildlife interaction.
• Presence of fruit bat populations.
• Monsoon-associated ecological conditions.

Static Linkages

• Zoonotic diseases emerge through spillover events from animals to humans.
• Habitat destruction and biodiversity loss increase zoonotic disease risks.
• Public Health is a State List (List II, Seventh Schedule) subject.
• Epidemic management requires Centre-State coordination.
• Disease surveillance is undertaken through:
  • Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP)
  • National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC)

One Health Approach

One Health

An integrated approach recognizing the interconnection
between:

• Human Health
• Animal Health
• Environmental Health

Importance

• Early detection of zoonotic diseases.
• Prevention of future pandemics.
• Better coordination among health, veterinary, and environmental sectors.

Mains Enrichment

Significance of Kerala Model

• Strong surveillance systems.
• Rapid contact tracing.
• Decentralized public healthcare.
• Preparedness from previous outbreaks.
• Effective risk communication.

Challenges

• Recurring zoonotic spillovers.
• Habitat fragmentation.
• Lack of approved vaccine.
• High mortality rate.
• Risk to healthcare workers

MOHENJO- DARO’S DANCING GIRL

• NCERT restored the original image of the “Dancing Girl” bronze figurine after criticism over a modified depiction in a Class IX textbook.
• The issue revived debates on:
  • Interpretation of Harappan artifacts.
  • Colonial narratives in archaeology. 
  • India–Pakistan claims over Harappan heritage.

Key Points

Dancing Girl Figurine

• Discovered at Mohenjo-daro in 1926.
• Belongs to the Indus Valley Civilization (c. 2600–1900 BCE).
• Made of bronze using the Lost-Wax (Cire Perdue) Technique.
• Height: Approximately 10.5 cm.
• Currently housed in National Museum, New Delhi.

India–Pakistan Heritage Dispute

• After Partition, Harappan sites such as
• Mohenjo-daro and Harappa became part of Pakistan.
• India and Pakistan agreed to a 50:50 division of certain Harappan artifacts.
• Pakistan selected the Priest King, while India retained the Dancing Girl.
• India maintains that the Harappan Civilization is a shared civilizational heritage of South Asia, not the exclusive heritage of any one modern nation-state.

Debate on Identification

• Archaeologist John Marshall identified the figurine as a “Dancing Girl”.
• Later scholars questioned this interpretation.
• No archaeological evidence conclusively proves that:
  • She was a dancer.
  • She represented a specific profession.
• Highlights the importance of evidence-based
  archaeological interpretation.

Static Linkages

• Indus Valley Civilization was one of the world’s earliest urban civilizations.
• Major sites:
  • Harappa
  • Mohenjo-daro
  • Dholavira (UNESCO World Heritage Site)
  • Lothal
  • Kalibangan
  • Rakhigarhi
• Features:
  • Urban planning
  • Grid-pattern streets
  • Advanced drainage system
  • Standardized weights and measures
  • Craft specialization
• Bronze casting through Lost-Wax Technique continues in traditional Indian metallurgy.
• UNESCO defines cultural heritage as a common legacy of humanity.

Critical Analysis

Significance

• Demonstrates advanced Harappan metallurgy.
• Provides evidence of craft specialization in urban centers.
• Reflects challenges of interpreting archaeological evidence.

Concerns

• Colonial interpretations often became accepted historical facts.
• Present-day moral standards may distort understanding of ancient societies.
• Heritage ownership disputes may affect cultural diplomacy.

UPSC Angle

• Shared heritage versus territorial ownership.
• Archaeological evidence as a source of ancient history.
• Decolonisation of historical narratives.

Way Forward

• Promote evidence-based archaeological research.
• Encourage regional cooperation on shared heritage.
• Strengthen conservation and digital archiving of artifacts.
• Ensure accurate representation of archaeological findings in educational material.
• Develop objective and multidisciplinary approaches to ancient history.