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06 December 2025

India-Russia Ties Steady as Pole Star | Repo Cut May Lower Loan Costs | India–Russia Plan Local-Currency Trade | Shadow Over Digital Rights | Chile’s Coal Lesson for India | Marked For life | Deal without Peace | Putin Wins, India Gains | IndiGo Crisis, Passenger Woes | Economy Anchors India-Russia | Low Inflation Gives RBI Room

GOVT.INDIA-RUSSIA TIES STEADY AS POLE STAR

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India; held bilateral talks with PM Modi at Hyderabad House.
  • PM Modi praised Russia for taking ties to “new heights” and called the partnership a “dhruva tara” (pole star) — symbolizing stability.
  • Visit took place after U.S. imposed tariffs on India for purchasing Russian energy.
  • Sixteen MoUs signed covering worker mobility, fertilizers, media, and academic collaboration.
  • India reiterated support for dialogue and diplomacy on the Ukraine conflict.

Key Points

  • India–Russia partnership reaffirmed with a vision extending to 2030.
  • Energy security highlighted as a major pillar; cooperation to expand in oil, gas, refining, petrochemicals.
  • Russia offered collaboration on Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs); Kudankulam recognised as India’s largest nuclear plant.
  • Both nations emphasized independent foreign policy and commitment to a multipolar world order.
  • Russia criticised Western media for attempting to influence Ukraine-related negotiations.

Static Linkages

  • India–Russia Special & Privileged Strategic Partnership (2000).
  • Indo-Soviet Treaty (1971) laid historical foundations of trust.
  • Nuclear cooperation under: Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010  2008 Nuclear Power Cooperation Agreement
  • SMRs align with India’s Net Zero 2070 goals.
  • Russia remains India’s key defence supplier (SIPRI trends).
  • Foreign policy continuity based on strategic autonomy, Panchsheel, and NAM principles.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Enhances energy diversification and long-term supply stability.
    • Advances clean energy via SMRs and nuclear cooperation.
    • Reinforces India’s strategic autonomy amid geopolitical contestation.
    • Supports connectivity and economic diplomacy.
  • Challenges
    • Sanctions complicate payments and logistics.  
    • Balancing ties with both U.S. (Indo-Pacific) and Russia (Eurasia).
    • Possible delays in defence and nuclear supply chains.
    • Ukraine conflict poses diplomatic sensitivities.
  • Stakeholder View
    • India: Stability + energy + defence reliability.  
    • Russia: Strategic pivot towards Asia.
    • West: Concern over India–Russia alignment.
    • Global South: India seen as a mediating power.

Way Forward

  • Develop alternative payment systems (e.g., rupee-based trade).
  • Fast-track joint projects in oil, LNG, nuclear energy.
  • Expand cooperation in Arctic exploration, pharma, digital tech.
  • Strengthen domestic defence manufacturing while maintaining strategic ties.
  • Support peaceful negotiations on Ukraine through diplomacy.

REPO CUT MAY LOWER LOAN COSTS

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • RBI’s MPC cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, citing rapid disinflation.
  • Headline inflation averaged 1.7% in Q2, below the 2% tolerance band.
  • GDP growth rose to 8.2%, supported by festive spending and GST rationalisation.
  • Under Governor Sanjay Malhotra, total cuts = 125 bps since Dec 2024.
  • MPC maintained a neutral stance.

Key Points

  • Repo Rate: Reduced from 5.5% to 5.25%.
  • Standing Deposit Facility (SDF): Adjusted to 5.0%.
  • Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) & Bank Rate: Adjusted to 5.5%.
  • Reason for Rate Cut:
    • Inflation easing due to benign food prices.  
    • Underlying inflation pressures remain low; rise in precious metals inflation contributes ~50 bps.
    • Scope to support growth as inflation well below target.
  • “Goldilocks Period”:
    • Inflation: 2.2% in H1 2025–26  Growth: 8% in H1
    • A rare combination of high growth + low inflation.
    • Policy Implications: Lower lending rates, cheaper credit, reduced deposit returns.

Static Linkages

  • Inflation Targeting: India uses a Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) framework under the RBI Act, 1934 (amended in 2016); target = 4% ± 2%.
  • MPC Composition: 6 members — 3 from RBI, 3 nominated by the Government; decisions by majority vote.
  • Repo Rate Transmission: Integral to Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) under RBI’s monetary operations.
  • Phillips Curve: Short-term trade-off between inflation and unemployment/growth.
  • Monetary Policy Tools: Quantitative (CRR, SLR, OMOs) & qualitative (moral suasion, credit rationing).
  • Real vs Nominal Rates: Real interest = nominal rate − inflation; low inflation → higher real rates unless policy adjusts.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Boosts credit flow, investment, and consumption.  
    • Supports growth amid global uncertainties.
    • Low inflation provides safe policy space.
  • Cons
    • Falls in deposit rates hit household savers.
    • Inflation could rebound due to volatile food prices.
    • Inefficient transmission may dilute impact.
    • Risk of asset bubbles if liquidity rises too fast.
  • Stakeholders
    • Consumers: Cheaper loans, lower deposit returns.  
    • Banks: Higher credit demand but margin pressure.  
    • Government: Reduced borrowing costs.

Way Forward

  • Strengthen monetary transmission.  
  • Build resilient food supply chains.
  • Maintain data-driven policy stance.
  • Align fiscal–monetary actions for stable growth.
  • Push productivity reforms to sustain low-inflation growth.

INDIA-RUSSIA PLAN LOCAL-CURRENCY TRADE

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
  • During President Putin’s visit for the 23rd Annual Summit, India and Russia agreed to expand national currency settlements (rupee– ruble).
  • Aim to remove tariff, non-tariff, logistics and payment barriers to push bilateral trade beyond $100 billion before 2030.
  • Current trade: $68.7 billion (2024–25).
  • Focus on interoperable payment systems, CBDCs, and resolving energy-sector investment issues.

Key Points

  • Joint commitment to rupee–ruble trade mechanisms to reduce dollar dependence.
  • Agreement on CBDC platform interoperability and smoother financial messaging.
  • Stress on a rules-based WTO-based trade order.
  • Recognition of hurdles: logistics, insurance, market access, payment delays.
  • Growing bottom-up private-sector interest in bilateral trade.
  • Energy cooperation remains a strategic pillar.

Static Linkages

  • Linked to BoP management, exchange rate regimes, Foreign Trade Policy, WTO principles (MFN, National Treatment).
  • Digital settlement linked with PSA 2007 and RBI’s CBDC framework.
  • India–Russia ties embedded in Strategic Partnership (2010) and long-standing defence- energy cooperation.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Enhances strategic autonomy via de- dollarization.
    • May help reduce India’s trade deficit with Russia.
    • Strengthens digital financial cooperation.
    • Improves business confidence and market access.
  • Cons / Challenges
    • Rupee–ruble imbalance persists due to import- heavy structure.
    • Sanctions complicate banks, insurance, logistics.
    • Rupee’s limited convertibility restricts wider adoption.
    • Slow removal of NTBs affects exporters.

Way Forward

  • Accelerate rupee–ruble settlement infrastructure.
  • Diversify India’s exports to Russia.
  • Advance CBDC interoperability protocols.  
  • Streamline logistics and insurance norms.
  • Promote sectoral cooperation: pharma, IT, agriculture, energy.
SHADOW OVER DIGITAL RIGHTS
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
  • Govt withdrew the mandate requiring all mobile manufacturers to pre-install Sanchar Saathi from 2026.
  • Rollback came within 48 hours after concerns over privacy, consent, surveillance, and unlimited data retention.
  • Reuters broke the story; Apple refused implementation.
  • Govt cited cybercrime rise (15.9L → 20.4L cases) as justification.
  • Triggered wider debate on digital constitutionalism—protecting rights in digital governance.

KEY POINTS

  • Digital constitutionalism = applying liberty, dignity, equality, privacy, accountability to digital systems.
  • Governance now relies on biometrics, AI, algorithms, behavioural profiling with limited transparency.
  • Surveillance has shifted to metadata, location tracking, biometrics, FRT.
  • DPDP Act, 2023 criticised for broad govt exemptions and weak oversight.
  • Algorithmic decisions affecting welfare, policing, loans remain opaque, with no appeal.
  • India lacks a comprehensive surveillance law or mandatory audits.

STATIC LINKAGES

  • Puttaswamy (2017): Privacy = Fundamental Right, subject to legality, necessity, proportionality.
  • Articles 14, 19, 21 ensure equality, non-arbitrariness, dignity, and freedom from excessive state intrusion.
  • Natural justice: right to explanation & appeal.
  • Rule of Law: constrained state power + transparency

CRITICAL ANALYSIS

  • Pros
    • Helps combat rising cybercrime.
    • Supports device tracking & public safety.
  • Concerns
    • Mandate violated consent and created risk of surveillance overreach.
    • DPDP Act’s exemptions weaken protections.
    • Algorithmic systems amplify bias, violate natural justice.
    • No independent oversight or transparency mechanism.
  • Constitutional View
    • Must satisfy proportionality, avoid chilling effect on expression.
    • Excessive surveillance breaches Articles 14, 19, 21.

WAY FORWARD

  • Establish Digital Rights Commission for audits & grievances.
  • Enact a comprehensive surveillance law with judicial warrants.
  • Mandate algorithmic transparency, bias audits, explainability.
  • Strengthen consent frameworks + reduce govt exemptions.
  • Publish transparency reports; enhance digital literacy.
  • Enforce strict purpose limitation and data minimisation.

CHILE’S COAL LESSON FOR INDIA

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • India slipped 13 spots to 23rd in the CCPI 2025 at COP30, Brazil, due to slow coal phaseout despite rapid renewable expansion.
  • Highlights the challenge of balancing energy security, jobs, and climate goals.
  • Chile’s success offers comparative insights.

Key Points

  • Coal provides 50%+ of India’s energy and 75% of electricity (2024); renewables form 50% of installed capacity but only 20% of actual generation.
  • India doubled clean energy capacity (2021–25) yet continues to raise coal output.
  • Chile cut coal power share from 43.6% → 17.5% (2016–24).
  • Chile’s key actions:
    • Carbon tax ($5/tonne, 2014)
    • Emission norms raising plant costs by 30%  
    • Competitive renewable auctions
    • Large-scale storage systems
    • Coal phaseout by 2040
  • Chile had fewer coal plants/workers and stronger market reforms, easing transition.
  • India’s coal belts (Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal) face high social risk.
  • Climate impacts: 3–10% GDP loss by 2100; 14% higher infant mortality per 1 GW added coal capacity.
  • TERI: Complete coal phaseout by 2050 needed for India’s Net Zero 2070.

Static Linkages

  • Paris Agreement NDCs: emission intensity reduction, non-fossil energy expansion.
  • Polluter Pays Principle under Indian environmental law.
  • DMF under MMDR Act for local welfare and diversification.
  • Directive Principles: worker welfare + environmental protection.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Cuts emissions and pollution- related health costs
    • Creates new green industries and jobs
    • Strengthens long-term energy security
  • Cons
    • Displacement of workers in coal regions
    • Grid stability challenges due to renewable intermittency
    • Loss of State revenues from coal
    • High upfront investment for storage & transmission
  • Stakeholders
    • Centre: balancing coal dependence vs climate goals
    • States: revenue & job concerns  Industry: compliance costs
    • Communities: demand social protection
    • Global actors: push for faster decarbonisation + finance

Way Forward

  • Time-bound coal phaseout roadmap and cancellation of new projects
  • Retire oldest plants; improve efficiency
  • Boost renewables + firm storage and upgrade transmission
  • Introduce carbon pricing, clean dispatch rules, remove coal subsidies
  • Establish Just Transition Fund; scale reskilling programmes
  • Use DMF for diversification and local entrepreneurship
  • Mobilise blended public–private finance.

MARKED FOR LIFE

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • SC expressed shock that survivor Shaheen Malik has not received justice 16 years after her 2009 attack.
  • CJI Surya Kant termed the delay a “mockery of the system”, urging a strong institutional response.
  • Court asked Centre to consider an ordinance and sought data on all pending acid attack trials.
  • Suggestion to set up special courts for day-to- day hearings.
  • Malik’s PIL seeks recognition of survivors as persons with specified disabilities under the RPwD Act, 2016.
  • NCRB 2023: 207 cases; West Bengal (57) highest, followed by UP (31).
  • Despite BNS Section 124, conviction rates remain low.

Key Points

  • Trial stagnated for years; transferred to Delhi only in 2013; final arguments ongoing.
  • SG Mehta supported the plea, stressing equal ruthlessness in punishment.
  • SC recalled the Laxmi vs Union of India directives on regulating acid sale and ensuring rehabilitation.
  • BNS Section 124: 10 years–life imprisonment + fine for acid attacks/attempt.
  • Survivors continue to face gaps in medical, legal, and rehabilitation support.

Static Linkages

  • Article 21: Right to life, dignity, bodily integrity.  Article 39A: Free legal aid; equal justice.
  • Speedy trial jurisprudence (Hussainara Khatoon).
  • Disability rights framework under RPwD Act.  Ordinance-making power under Article 123.  
  • Policing as State subject; criminal law in Concurrent List → coordination needed.

Critical Analysis

  • Strengths:
    • SC push may accelerate reforms and improve trial timelines.
    • Special courts can reduce pendency and improve conviction quality.
    • Ordinance route can quickly plug regulatory gaps.
  • Concerns:
    • Weak investigation and poor evidence collection prolong trials.
    • Acid sale restrictions poorly enforced.
    • Inconsistent compensation and medical support across states.
    • Lack of disability recognition excludes survivors from schemes.
    • High stigma, low reintegration opportunities.

Way Forward

  • Constitute fast-track special courts with strict timelines.
  • Real-time monitoring of acid sale licences.
  • Uniform medical, surgical, and mental health coverage.
  • Formal disability recognition for survivors.
  • Strengthen forensic systems and witness protection.
  • National survivor registry and standardized compensation norms.

DEAL WITHOUT PEACE

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • On December 4, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted leaders of Rwanda and the DR Congo for signing a peace agreement.
  • The deal endorsed an earlier ministerial accord and promised U.S. investments in Congo’s mineral sector.
  • Despite the ceremony, M23 insurgency and clashes in eastern Congo continue.
  • Rwanda seeks Congo’s action against Hutu extremist militias; Congo demands Rwandan troop withdrawal.
  • The conflict is rooted in the 1994 Rwandan genocide and later militia movements into Congo.

Key Points

  • M23 stems from the failed March 23, 2009 peace agreement; claims to defend Congo’s Tutsi minority.
  • Congo and UN experts accuse Rwanda of backing M23.
  • M23 earlier captured Goma (2012, 2021), expanding territorial control.
  • Parallel mediation: U.S. (Congo–Rwanda) and Qatar (Congo–M23).
  • Peace hinges on militia disarmament, ethnic reconciliation, and Rwanda–Congo trust-building.

Static Linkages

  • Ethnic conflict drivers: colonial borders, identity politics, resource competition.
  • Role of non-state armed groups in internal security.
  • Principles of DDR (Disarmament–Demobilisation– Reintegration).
  • Strategic importance of rare earth minerals and resource geopolitics.
  • Concept of peacekeeping and international mediation.

Critical Analysis

  • Positives
    • Renewed diplomatic engagement between Rwanda and Congo.
    • U.S. investment promises may stabilise Congo’s resource economy.
    • External pressure may curb militia support.
  • Challenges
    • Ground realities unchanged—M23 still controls territory.
    • Deep Hutu–Tutsi grievances require long-term reconciliation.
    • Risk of renewed exploitation of Congo’s minerals.
    • Weak border control and fragile state capacity hinder implementation.
  • Stakeholders
    • Congo: Wants territorial control, M23 withdrawal.  Rwanda: Seeks action against Hutu extremists.
    • U.S.: Strategic interest in rare earths, regional stability.
    • Local communities: Face displacement, violence.

Way Forward

  • Strengthen DDR and neutralise armed groups.
  • Independent verification of ceasefire/troop withdrawal.
  • Regional role for AU and EAC.
  • Ethnic reconciliation and transitional justice.
  • Transparent mineral governance to prevent exploitation.
  • Local development to reduce militia recruitment.

PUTIN WINS, INDIA GAINS

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin completed a two-day state visit to India, receiving unusually high protocol despite Western sanctions.
  • The visit occurs as India–US ties face friction, including high tariffs and a 25% penal duty on India’s purchase of Russian oil.
  • India and Russia announced the Economic Vision for 2030 and a USD 100 billion trade target.
  • The visit boosts Putin’s international legitimacy and strengthens India’s strategic autonomy.

Key Points

  • India offered rare ceremonial gestures, signalling stable ties despite Western pressure.
  • US strategic focus is shifting away from the Indo-Pacific, reducing India’s centrality.
  • Russia–India cooperation remains strong in defence hardware, nuclear energy, and oil trade.
  • Russia is the only country sharing sensitive tech like nuclear submarines and S-400 systems.
  • China is cautious but may benefit from India– US divergence.
  • Europe disapproves of India’s warm welcome to Putin but continues strategic engagement with India.

Static Linkages

  • India’s tradition of Non-Alignment and Strategic Autonomy.
  • Legacy dependence on Soviet/Russian defence systems.
  • Principles of balance of power and multi-alignment.
  • Nuclear governance under the Atomic Energy Act, 1962 and AERB oversight.
  • Indo-Soviet Treaty, 1971 as historical anchor.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Strengthens strategic autonomy and diversified partnerships.
    • Ensures access to important defence platforms and nuclear technologies.
    • Enhances energy security via discounted Russian crude.
    • Balances uncertainties in US foreign policy.
  • Cons
    • May invite economic or diplomatic costs from the US and EU.
    • Russia’s deepening China ties limit India’s leverage.
    • Optics of engagement during the Ukraine war may affect India’s global image.
    • Economic sanctions on Russia may impact long-term reliability.
  • Stakeholder View
    • Russia: Gains legitimacy and reduced China dependency.
    • US/EU: Concerned over India’s Russia ties amid the Ukraine conflict.
    • China: Mixed—concern over India’s capacity- building but relieved at India–US frictions.
    • India: Navigates multipolarity while protecting defence and energy interests.

Way Forward

  • Deepen US/Europe ties while maintaining Russia as a strategic pillar.
  • Accelerate defence indigenisation and diversify imports.
  • Expand nuclear collaboration in SMRs and safety systems.
  • Strengthen India’s role in issue-based global coalitions.
  • Maintain balanced diplomacy on the Ukraine conflict.

INDIGO CRISIS, PASSENGER WOES

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
  • IndiGo, India’s largest airline (60% market share), faced a major operational breakdown.
  • 1,000+ flights cancelled over several days; 550+ on December 4 alone.
  • Triggered by shortage of pilots after new FDTL rules effective Nov 1.
  • IndiGo suspended all domestic departures from Delhi (Dec 5) to stabilise operations.
  • DGCA granted temporary relaxations and is monitoring recovery.
  • Raised concerns over weak passenger rights in India.

Key Points

  • FDTL mandates stricter duty hours, 48-hour weekly rest, and capped night landings.
  • Airlines lack adequate pilots, causing cascading cancellations across daily sectors.
  • Winter congestion, poor weather, and training delays worsened the crisis.
  • Global pilot demand + domestic resistance to expatriates slow hiring.
  • No separate Air Passenger Rights Law; only CPA 2019 applies.
  • Passenger Charter (2019) exists but weakly implemented.

Static Linkages

  • Civil aviation → Union List Entry 29.
  • DGCA powers → Aircraft Act 1934 & Aircraft Rules 1937.
  • Consumer rights → CPA 2019: deficiency in service.
  • 2nd ARC: need for Citizens’ Charters & service accountability.
  • Transport safety and fatigue norms in standard administrative frameworks.

Critical Analysis

  • Positives
    • FDTL boosts flight safety.
    • DGCA intervened proactively.
    • Operational reset may restore long-term stability.
  • Concerns
    • Poor planning for FDTL compliance.
    • Excessive reliance on one airline → systemic risk.
    • Weak enforcement of passenger rights.
    • Pilot shortages + slow training; resistance to expat hiring.
    • Lack of transparency on delays/cancellations.
  • Stakeholders
    •  Passengers (rights, compensation), Airlines (operational constraints), DGCA (safety balance), Government (policy gaps).

Way Forward

  • Enact Air Passenger Rights Law with compensation & grievance system.
  • Phased rollout of regulatory changes.
  • Strengthen DGCA autonomy & data systems.  
  • Expand national pilot training capacity.
  • Ensure real-time transparency on disruptions.
  • Adopt EU-style disruption protocols.
ECONOMY ANCHORS INDIA-RUSSIA
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
  • President Putin visited India (Dec 4–5, 2025), his first since the Ukraine war.
  • Visit happened amid Western pressure over India’s Russian oil imports.
  • Both sides unveiled a Strategic Economic Roadmap 2030 and signed pacts on labour mobility, fertilisers, nuclear cooperation, tourism.
  • Bilateral trade touched $69 bn (2025), driven mainly by India’s oil imports.

Key Points

  • Trade Imbalance: India exports just $5 bn to Russia; target revised to $100 bn by 2030.
  • Need smooth payment mechanisms and reduced trade barriers
  • Economic Diversification: Move from defence- heavy ties to energy, manufacturing, digital- cooperation, connectivity.
  • Labour Mobility Pact: Opens Russian sectors to Indian workers amid Russia’s labour shortage; potential diaspora growth similar to Gulf model.
  • Energy Security: Russia assures uninterrupted fuel supplies.
  • Geopolitical Balancing: India aims to deepen ties with Russia without undermining relations with the US/EU.

Static Linkages

  • 1965 US arms embargo pushed India toward Soviet defence dependence.
  • India’s long-standing strategic autonomy and multi-alignment approach.
  • Diaspora as a tool of soft power and negotiation leverage.
  • Energy security is a core national priority in Economic Survey & policy documents.
  • FTAs with regional blocs enhance market access and supply-chain resilience.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Broadens ties beyond defence to long-term economic cooperation.
    • Labour pact supports India’s demographic dividend and Russia’s workforce needs.
    • Discounted oil enhances affordability and stability.
    • Potential FTA with EAEU boosts export opportunities.
  • Cons / Challenges
    • Severe trade imbalance remains.
    • Payment mechanisms complicated by sanctions.
    •   Possible friction with Western partners.
    • Implementation of labour mobility requires strong worker safeguards.

Way Forward

  • Boost exports in pharma, agri-products, machinery, IT.
  • Develop dependable rupee–ruble/digital settlement systems.
  • Accelerate EAEU FTA talks.
  • Ensure transparent and safe migration channels.
  • Strengthen INSTC & maritime connectivity.
  • Maintain balanced major-power diplomacy anchored in “peace”

LOW INFLATION GIVES RBI ROOM

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • RBI’s MPC met in December amid 8.2% real GDP growth, sub-4% inflation, and rupee crossing ₹90/USD.
  • Nominal GDP low at 8.8%, below Budget estimate (10.1%).
  • Inflation below target since February; RBI projects 2% average this year.
  • MPC cut repo rate by 25 bps after two meetings of status quo.

Key Points

  • Inflation: Core (ex-gold) at 2.6%; forecasts indicate no near-term inflation build-up.
  • Growth: High-frequency indicators strong but early signs of slowdown; exports weakened.
  • RBI projects 7% growth (Q3) and 6.5% (Q4).  Real repo ~ 1.25% → accommodative.
  • Liquidity measures announced to support rate transmission.
  • Fiscal space limited post tax cuts → more burden on monetary policy.

Static Linkages

  • MPC structure & decision rules; role of repo rate.
  • Real vs nominal GDP; GDP deflator.
  • Managed float exchange rate system.  
  • Core vs headline inflation.
  • Transmission mechanism and liquidity conditions.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Supports credit growth, investment, MSMEs.
    • Aligns with flexible inflation-targeting framework.
    • Helps counter external slowdown. Risks
    • Further rupee depreciation.
    • Possible future inflation from food/oil shocks.  
    • Weak transmission if banking liquidity tight.
  • Stakeholders
    • Govt: Needs growth boost.
    • Industry: Lower borrowing costs.
    • Consumers: Cheaper loans but risk of imported inflation.

Way Forward

  • Strengthen liquidity operations for smoother transmission.
  • Improve export competitiveness to stabilise rupee.
  • Enhance inflation/GDP nowcasting.  Monitor food supply chains.
  • Continue structural reforms to sustain long- term growth.