India-Russia Ties Steady as Pole Star | Repo Cut May Lower Loan Costs | India–Russia Plan Local-Currency Trade | Shadow Over Digital Rights | Chile’s Coal Lesson for India | Marked For life | Deal without Peace | Putin Wins, India Gains | IndiGo Crisis, Passenger Woes | Economy Anchors India-Russia | Low Inflation Gives RBI Room
GOVT.INDIA-RUSSIA TIES STEADY AS POLE STAR
- Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India; held bilateral talks with PM Modi at Hyderabad House.
- PM Modi praised Russia for taking ties to “new heights” and called the partnership a “dhruva tara” (pole star) — symbolizing stability.
- Visit took place after U.S. imposed tariffs on India for purchasing Russian energy.
- Sixteen MoUs signed covering worker mobility, fertilizers, media, and academic collaboration.
- India reiterated support for dialogue and diplomacy on the Ukraine conflict.
Key Points
- India–Russia partnership reaffirmed with a vision extending to 2030.
- Energy security highlighted as a major pillar; cooperation to expand in oil, gas, refining, petrochemicals.
- Russia offered collaboration on Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs); Kudankulam recognised as India’s largest nuclear plant.
- Both nations emphasized independent foreign policy and commitment to a multipolar world order.
- Russia criticised Western media for attempting to influence Ukraine-related negotiations.
Static Linkages
- India–Russia Special & Privileged Strategic Partnership (2000).
- Indo-Soviet Treaty (1971) laid historical foundations of trust.
- Nuclear cooperation under: Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010 2008 Nuclear Power Cooperation Agreement
- SMRs align with India’s Net Zero 2070 goals.
- Russia remains India’s key defence supplier (SIPRI trends).
- Foreign policy continuity based on strategic autonomy, Panchsheel, and NAM principles.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Enhances energy diversification and long-term supply stability.
- Advances clean energy via SMRs and nuclear cooperation.
- Reinforces India’s strategic autonomy amid geopolitical contestation.
- Supports connectivity and economic diplomacy.
- Challenges
- Sanctions complicate payments and logistics.
- Balancing ties with both U.S. (Indo-Pacific) and Russia (Eurasia).
- Possible delays in defence and nuclear supply chains.
- Ukraine conflict poses diplomatic sensitivities.
- Stakeholder View
- India: Stability + energy + defence reliability.
- Russia: Strategic pivot towards Asia.
- West: Concern over India–Russia alignment.
- Global South: India seen as a mediating power.
Way Forward
- Develop alternative payment systems (e.g., rupee-based trade).
- Fast-track joint projects in oil, LNG, nuclear energy.
- Expand cooperation in Arctic exploration, pharma, digital tech.
- Strengthen domestic defence manufacturing while maintaining strategic ties.
- Support peaceful negotiations on Ukraine through diplomacy.
REPO CUT MAY LOWER LOAN COSTS
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- RBI’s MPC cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, citing rapid disinflation.
- Headline inflation averaged 1.7% in Q2, below the 2% tolerance band.
- GDP growth rose to 8.2%, supported by festive spending and GST rationalisation.
- Under Governor Sanjay Malhotra, total cuts = 125 bps since Dec 2024.
- MPC maintained a neutral stance.
Key Points
- Repo Rate: Reduced from 5.5% to 5.25%.
- Standing Deposit Facility (SDF): Adjusted to 5.0%.
- Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) & Bank Rate: Adjusted to 5.5%.
- Reason for Rate Cut:
- Inflation easing due to benign food prices.
- Underlying inflation pressures remain low; rise in precious metals inflation contributes ~50 bps.
- Scope to support growth as inflation well below target.
- “Goldilocks Period”:
- Inflation: 2.2% in H1 2025–26 Growth: 8% in H1
- A rare combination of high growth + low inflation.
- Policy Implications: Lower lending rates, cheaper credit, reduced deposit returns.
Static Linkages
- Inflation Targeting: India uses a Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) framework under the RBI Act, 1934 (amended in 2016); target = 4% ± 2%.
- MPC Composition: 6 members — 3 from RBI, 3 nominated by the Government; decisions by majority vote.
- Repo Rate Transmission: Integral to Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) under RBI’s monetary operations.
- Phillips Curve: Short-term trade-off between inflation and unemployment/growth.
- Monetary Policy Tools: Quantitative (CRR, SLR, OMOs) & qualitative (moral suasion, credit rationing).
- Real vs Nominal Rates: Real interest = nominal rate − inflation; low inflation → higher real rates unless policy adjusts.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Boosts credit flow, investment, and consumption.
- Supports growth amid global uncertainties.
- Low inflation provides safe policy space.
- Cons
- Falls in deposit rates hit household savers.
- Inflation could rebound due to volatile food prices.
- Inefficient transmission may dilute impact.
- Risk of asset bubbles if liquidity rises too fast.
- Stakeholders
- Consumers: Cheaper loans, lower deposit returns.
- Banks: Higher credit demand but margin pressure.
- Government: Reduced borrowing costs.
Way Forward
- Strengthen monetary transmission.
- Build resilient food supply chains.
- Maintain data-driven policy stance.
- Align fiscal–monetary actions for stable growth.
- Push productivity reforms to sustain low-inflation growth.
INDIA-RUSSIA PLAN LOCAL-CURRENCY TRADE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- During President Putin’s visit for the 23rd Annual Summit, India and Russia agreed to expand national currency settlements (rupee– ruble).
- Aim to remove tariff, non-tariff, logistics and payment barriers to push bilateral trade beyond $100 billion before 2030.
- Current trade: $68.7 billion (2024–25).
- Focus on interoperable payment systems, CBDCs, and resolving energy-sector investment issues.
Key Points
- Joint commitment to rupee–ruble trade mechanisms to reduce dollar dependence.
- Agreement on CBDC platform interoperability and smoother financial messaging.
- Stress on a rules-based WTO-based trade order.
- Recognition of hurdles: logistics, insurance, market access, payment delays.
- Growing bottom-up private-sector interest in bilateral trade.
- Energy cooperation remains a strategic pillar.
Static Linkages
- Linked to BoP management, exchange rate regimes, Foreign Trade Policy, WTO principles (MFN, National Treatment).
- Digital settlement linked with PSA 2007 and RBI’s CBDC framework.
- India–Russia ties embedded in Strategic Partnership (2010) and long-standing defence- energy cooperation.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Enhances strategic autonomy via de- dollarization.
- May help reduce India’s trade deficit with Russia.
- Strengthens digital financial cooperation.
- Improves business confidence and market access.
- Cons / Challenges
- Rupee–ruble imbalance persists due to import- heavy structure.
- Sanctions complicate banks, insurance, logistics.
- Rupee’s limited convertibility restricts wider adoption.
- Slow removal of NTBs affects exporters.
Way Forward
- Accelerate rupee–ruble settlement infrastructure.
- Diversify India’s exports to Russia.
- Advance CBDC interoperability protocols.
- Streamline logistics and insurance norms.
- Promote sectoral cooperation: pharma, IT, agriculture, energy.
SHADOW OVER DIGITAL RIGHTS
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- Govt withdrew the mandate requiring all mobile manufacturers to pre-install Sanchar Saathi from 2026.
- Rollback came within 48 hours after concerns over privacy, consent, surveillance, and unlimited data retention.
- Reuters broke the story; Apple refused implementation.
- Govt cited cybercrime rise (15.9L → 20.4L cases) as justification.
- Triggered wider debate on digital constitutionalism—protecting rights in digital governance.
KEY POINTS
- Digital constitutionalism = applying liberty, dignity, equality, privacy, accountability to digital systems.
- Governance now relies on biometrics, AI, algorithms, behavioural profiling with limited transparency.
- Surveillance has shifted to metadata, location tracking, biometrics, FRT.
- DPDP Act, 2023 criticised for broad govt exemptions and weak oversight.
- Algorithmic decisions affecting welfare, policing, loans remain opaque, with no appeal.
- India lacks a comprehensive surveillance law or mandatory audits.
STATIC LINKAGES
- Puttaswamy (2017): Privacy = Fundamental Right, subject to legality, necessity, proportionality.
- Articles 14, 19, 21 ensure equality, non-arbitrariness, dignity, and freedom from excessive state intrusion.
- Natural justice: right to explanation & appeal.
- Rule of Law: constrained state power + transparency
CRITICAL ANALYSIS
- Pros
- Helps combat rising cybercrime.
- Supports device tracking & public safety.
- Concerns
- Mandate violated consent and created risk of surveillance overreach.
- DPDP Act’s exemptions weaken protections.
- Algorithmic systems amplify bias, violate natural justice.
- No independent oversight or transparency mechanism.
- Constitutional View
- Must satisfy proportionality, avoid chilling effect on expression.
- Excessive surveillance breaches Articles 14, 19, 21.
WAY FORWARD
- Establish Digital Rights Commission for audits & grievances.
- Enact a comprehensive surveillance law with judicial warrants.
- Mandate algorithmic transparency, bias audits, explainability.
- Strengthen consent frameworks + reduce govt exemptions.
- Publish transparency reports; enhance digital literacy.
- Enforce strict purpose limitation and data minimisation.
CHILE’S COAL LESSON FOR INDIA
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- India slipped 13 spots to 23rd in the CCPI 2025 at COP30, Brazil, due to slow coal phaseout despite rapid renewable expansion.
- Highlights the challenge of balancing energy security, jobs, and climate goals.
- Chile’s success offers comparative insights.
Key Points
- Coal provides 50%+ of India’s energy and 75% of electricity (2024); renewables form 50% of installed capacity but only 20% of actual generation.
- India doubled clean energy capacity (2021–25) yet continues to raise coal output.
- Chile cut coal power share from 43.6% → 17.5% (2016–24).
- Chile’s key actions:
- Carbon tax ($5/tonne, 2014)
- Emission norms raising plant costs by 30%
- Competitive renewable auctions
- Large-scale storage systems
- Coal phaseout by 2040
- Chile had fewer coal plants/workers and stronger market reforms, easing transition.
- India’s coal belts (Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal) face high social risk.
- Climate impacts: 3–10% GDP loss by 2100; 14% higher infant mortality per 1 GW added coal capacity.
- TERI: Complete coal phaseout by 2050 needed for India’s Net Zero 2070.
Static Linkages
- Paris Agreement NDCs: emission intensity reduction, non-fossil energy expansion.
- Polluter Pays Principle under Indian environmental law.
- DMF under MMDR Act for local welfare and diversification.
- Directive Principles: worker welfare + environmental protection.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Cuts emissions and pollution- related health costs
- Creates new green industries and jobs
- Strengthens long-term energy security
- Cons
- Displacement of workers in coal regions
- Grid stability challenges due to renewable intermittency
- Loss of State revenues from coal
- High upfront investment for storage & transmission
- Stakeholders
- Centre: balancing coal dependence vs climate goals
- States: revenue & job concerns Industry: compliance costs
- Communities: demand social protection
- Global actors: push for faster decarbonisation + finance
Way Forward
- Time-bound coal phaseout roadmap and cancellation of new projects
- Retire oldest plants; improve efficiency
- Boost renewables + firm storage and upgrade transmission
- Introduce carbon pricing, clean dispatch rules, remove coal subsidies
- Establish Just Transition Fund; scale reskilling programmes
- Use DMF for diversification and local entrepreneurship
- Mobilise blended public–private finance.
MARKED FOR LIFE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- SC expressed shock that survivor Shaheen Malik has not received justice 16 years after her 2009 attack.
- CJI Surya Kant termed the delay a “mockery of the system”, urging a strong institutional response.
- Court asked Centre to consider an ordinance and sought data on all pending acid attack trials.
- Suggestion to set up special courts for day-to- day hearings.
- Malik’s PIL seeks recognition of survivors as persons with specified disabilities under the RPwD Act, 2016.
- NCRB 2023: 207 cases; West Bengal (57) highest, followed by UP (31).
- Despite BNS Section 124, conviction rates remain low.
Key Points
- Trial stagnated for years; transferred to Delhi only in 2013; final arguments ongoing.
- SG Mehta supported the plea, stressing equal ruthlessness in punishment.
- SC recalled the Laxmi vs Union of India directives on regulating acid sale and ensuring rehabilitation.
- BNS Section 124: 10 years–life imprisonment + fine for acid attacks/attempt.
- Survivors continue to face gaps in medical, legal, and rehabilitation support.
Static Linkages
- Article 21: Right to life, dignity, bodily integrity. Article 39A: Free legal aid; equal justice.
- Speedy trial jurisprudence (Hussainara Khatoon).
- Disability rights framework under RPwD Act. Ordinance-making power under Article 123.
- Policing as State subject; criminal law in Concurrent List → coordination needed.
Critical Analysis
- Strengths:
- SC push may accelerate reforms and improve trial timelines.
- Special courts can reduce pendency and improve conviction quality.
- Ordinance route can quickly plug regulatory gaps.
- Concerns:
- Weak investigation and poor evidence collection prolong trials.
- Acid sale restrictions poorly enforced.
- Inconsistent compensation and medical support across states.
- Lack of disability recognition excludes survivors from schemes.
- High stigma, low reintegration opportunities.
Way Forward
- Constitute fast-track special courts with strict timelines.
- Real-time monitoring of acid sale licences.
- Uniform medical, surgical, and mental health coverage.
- Formal disability recognition for survivors.
- Strengthen forensic systems and witness protection.
- National survivor registry and standardized compensation norms.
DEAL WITHOUT PEACE
- On December 4, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted leaders of Rwanda and the DR Congo for signing a peace agreement.
- The deal endorsed an earlier ministerial accord and promised U.S. investments in Congo’s mineral sector.
- Despite the ceremony, M23 insurgency and clashes in eastern Congo continue.
- Rwanda seeks Congo’s action against Hutu extremist militias; Congo demands Rwandan troop withdrawal.
- The conflict is rooted in the 1994 Rwandan genocide and later militia movements into Congo.
Key Points
- M23 stems from the failed March 23, 2009 peace agreement; claims to defend Congo’s Tutsi minority.
- Congo and UN experts accuse Rwanda of backing M23.
- M23 earlier captured Goma (2012, 2021), expanding territorial control.
- Parallel mediation: U.S. (Congo–Rwanda) and Qatar (Congo–M23).
- Peace hinges on militia disarmament, ethnic reconciliation, and Rwanda–Congo trust-building.
Static Linkages
- Ethnic conflict drivers: colonial borders, identity politics, resource competition.
- Role of non-state armed groups in internal security.
- Principles of DDR (Disarmament–Demobilisation– Reintegration).
- Strategic importance of rare earth minerals and resource geopolitics.
- Concept of peacekeeping and international mediation.
Critical Analysis
- Positives
- Renewed diplomatic engagement between Rwanda and Congo.
- U.S. investment promises may stabilise Congo’s resource economy.
- External pressure may curb militia support.
- Challenges
- Ground realities unchanged—M23 still controls territory.
- Deep Hutu–Tutsi grievances require long-term reconciliation.
- Risk of renewed exploitation of Congo’s minerals.
- Weak border control and fragile state capacity hinder implementation.
- Stakeholders
- Congo: Wants territorial control, M23 withdrawal. Rwanda: Seeks action against Hutu extremists.
- U.S.: Strategic interest in rare earths, regional stability.
- Local communities: Face displacement, violence.
Way Forward
- Strengthen DDR and neutralise armed groups.
- Independent verification of ceasefire/troop withdrawal.
- Regional role for AU and EAC.
- Ethnic reconciliation and transitional justice.
- Transparent mineral governance to prevent exploitation.
- Local development to reduce militia recruitment.
PUTIN WINS, INDIA GAINS
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Russian President Vladimir Putin completed a two-day state visit to India, receiving unusually high protocol despite Western sanctions.
- The visit occurs as India–US ties face friction, including high tariffs and a 25% penal duty on India’s purchase of Russian oil.
- India and Russia announced the Economic Vision for 2030 and a USD 100 billion trade target.
- The visit boosts Putin’s international legitimacy and strengthens India’s strategic autonomy.
Key Points
- India offered rare ceremonial gestures, signalling stable ties despite Western pressure.
- US strategic focus is shifting away from the Indo-Pacific, reducing India’s centrality.
- Russia–India cooperation remains strong in defence hardware, nuclear energy, and oil trade.
- Russia is the only country sharing sensitive tech like nuclear submarines and S-400 systems.
- China is cautious but may benefit from India– US divergence.
- Europe disapproves of India’s warm welcome to Putin but continues strategic engagement with India.
Static Linkages
- India’s tradition of Non-Alignment and Strategic Autonomy.
- Legacy dependence on Soviet/Russian defence systems.
- Principles of balance of power and multi-alignment.
- Nuclear governance under the Atomic Energy Act, 1962 and AERB oversight.
- Indo-Soviet Treaty, 1971 as historical anchor.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Strengthens strategic autonomy and diversified partnerships.
- Ensures access to important defence platforms and nuclear technologies.
- Enhances energy security via discounted Russian crude.
- Balances uncertainties in US foreign policy.
- Cons
- May invite economic or diplomatic costs from the US and EU.
- Russia’s deepening China ties limit India’s leverage.
- Optics of engagement during the Ukraine war may affect India’s global image.
- Economic sanctions on Russia may impact long-term reliability.
- Stakeholder View
- Russia: Gains legitimacy and reduced China dependency.
- US/EU: Concerned over India’s Russia ties amid the Ukraine conflict.
- China: Mixed—concern over India’s capacity- building but relieved at India–US frictions.
- India: Navigates multipolarity while protecting defence and energy interests.
Way Forward
- Deepen US/Europe ties while maintaining Russia as a strategic pillar.
- Accelerate defence indigenisation and diversify imports.
- Expand nuclear collaboration in SMRs and safety systems.
- Strengthen India’s role in issue-based global coalitions.
- Maintain balanced diplomacy on the Ukraine conflict.
INDIGO CRISIS, PASSENGER WOES
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- IndiGo, India’s largest airline (60% market share), faced a major operational breakdown.
- 1,000+ flights cancelled over several days; 550+ on December 4 alone.
- Triggered by shortage of pilots after new FDTL rules effective Nov 1.
- IndiGo suspended all domestic departures from Delhi (Dec 5) to stabilise operations.
- DGCA granted temporary relaxations and is monitoring recovery.
- Raised concerns over weak passenger rights in India.
Key Points
- FDTL mandates stricter duty hours, 48-hour weekly rest, and capped night landings.
- Airlines lack adequate pilots, causing cascading cancellations across daily sectors.
- Winter congestion, poor weather, and training delays worsened the crisis.
- Global pilot demand + domestic resistance to expatriates slow hiring.
- No separate Air Passenger Rights Law; only CPA 2019 applies.
- Passenger Charter (2019) exists but weakly implemented.
Static Linkages
- Civil aviation → Union List Entry 29.
- DGCA powers → Aircraft Act 1934 & Aircraft Rules 1937.
- Consumer rights → CPA 2019: deficiency in service.
- 2nd ARC: need for Citizens’ Charters & service accountability.
- Transport safety and fatigue norms in standard administrative frameworks.
Critical Analysis
- Positives
- FDTL boosts flight safety.
- DGCA intervened proactively.
- Operational reset may restore long-term stability.
- Concerns
- Poor planning for FDTL compliance.
- Excessive reliance on one airline → systemic risk.
- Weak enforcement of passenger rights.
- Pilot shortages + slow training; resistance to expat hiring.
- Lack of transparency on delays/cancellations.
- Stakeholders
- Passengers (rights, compensation), Airlines (operational constraints), DGCA (safety balance), Government (policy gaps).
Way Forward
- Enact Air Passenger Rights Law with compensation & grievance system.
- Phased rollout of regulatory changes.
- Strengthen DGCA autonomy & data systems.
- Expand national pilot training capacity.
- Ensure real-time transparency on disruptions.
- Adopt EU-style disruption protocols.
ECONOMY ANCHORS INDIA-RUSSIA
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- President Putin visited India (Dec 4–5, 2025), his first since the Ukraine war.
- Visit happened amid Western pressure over India’s Russian oil imports.
- Both sides unveiled a Strategic Economic Roadmap 2030 and signed pacts on labour mobility, fertilisers, nuclear cooperation, tourism.
- Bilateral trade touched $69 bn (2025), driven mainly by India’s oil imports.
Key Points
- Trade Imbalance: India exports just $5 bn to Russia; target revised to $100 bn by 2030.
- Need smooth payment mechanisms and reduced trade barriers
- Economic Diversification: Move from defence- heavy ties to energy, manufacturing, digital- cooperation, connectivity.
- Labour Mobility Pact: Opens Russian sectors to Indian workers amid Russia’s labour shortage; potential diaspora growth similar to Gulf model.
- Energy Security: Russia assures uninterrupted fuel supplies.
- Geopolitical Balancing: India aims to deepen ties with Russia without undermining relations with the US/EU.
Static Linkages
- 1965 US arms embargo pushed India toward Soviet defence dependence.
- India’s long-standing strategic autonomy and multi-alignment approach.
- Diaspora as a tool of soft power and negotiation leverage.
- Energy security is a core national priority in Economic Survey & policy documents.
- FTAs with regional blocs enhance market access and supply-chain resilience.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Broadens ties beyond defence to long-term economic cooperation.
- Labour pact supports India’s demographic dividend and Russia’s workforce needs.
- Discounted oil enhances affordability and stability.
- Potential FTA with EAEU boosts export opportunities.
- Cons / Challenges
- Severe trade imbalance remains.
- Payment mechanisms complicated by sanctions.
- Possible friction with Western partners.
- Implementation of labour mobility requires strong worker safeguards.
Way Forward
- Boost exports in pharma, agri-products, machinery, IT.
- Develop dependable rupee–ruble/digital settlement systems.
- Accelerate EAEU FTA talks.
- Ensure transparent and safe migration channels.
- Strengthen INSTC & maritime connectivity.
- Maintain balanced major-power diplomacy anchored in “peace”
LOW INFLATION GIVES RBI ROOM
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- RBI’s MPC met in December amid 8.2% real GDP growth, sub-4% inflation, and rupee crossing ₹90/USD.
- Nominal GDP low at 8.8%, below Budget estimate (10.1%).
- Inflation below target since February; RBI projects 2% average this year.
- MPC cut repo rate by 25 bps after two meetings of status quo.
Key Points
- Inflation: Core (ex-gold) at 2.6%; forecasts indicate no near-term inflation build-up.
- Growth: High-frequency indicators strong but early signs of slowdown; exports weakened.
- RBI projects 7% growth (Q3) and 6.5% (Q4). Real repo ~ 1.25% → accommodative.
- Liquidity measures announced to support rate transmission.
- Fiscal space limited post tax cuts → more burden on monetary policy.
Static Linkages
- MPC structure & decision rules; role of repo rate.
- Real vs nominal GDP; GDP deflator.
- Managed float exchange rate system.
- Core vs headline inflation.
- Transmission mechanism and liquidity conditions.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Supports credit growth, investment, MSMEs.
- Aligns with flexible inflation-targeting framework.
- Helps counter external slowdown. Risks
- Further rupee depreciation.
- Possible future inflation from food/oil shocks.
- Weak transmission if banking liquidity tight.
- Stakeholders
- Govt: Needs growth boost.
- Industry: Lower borrowing costs.
- Consumers: Cheaper loans but risk of imported inflation.
Way Forward
- Strengthen liquidity operations for smoother transmission.
- Improve export competitiveness to stabilise rupee.
- Enhance inflation/GDP nowcasting. Monitor food supply chains.
- Continue structural reforms to sustain long- term growth.