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01 January 2026

Centre Pre-Publishes Labour Codes | India’s Space, People’s Journey | US Tariff Shock, Pharma Future | Decent Into Farce | Hold The Centre | Near-Term External Risks | India As a Bridge in 2026 | Post-Tariffs, Build India-Australia Pact | Despite Trump, Climate Resolve

CENTRE PRE-PUBLISHES LABOUR CODE

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • Union Labour Ministry released draft Rules to operationalise the four Labour Codes and invited public comments for 45 days.
  • Rules consolidate multiple legacy labour regulations into a simplified framework.
  • Focus areas include 48-hour work week, minimum wages, social security expansion, women’s night-shift safety, and industrial relations reforms.

Key Points

  • Code on Wages
    • Merges 18 earlier wage-related rules
    • Minimum wages based on standard working class family:
      • Spouse + two children; 3 consumption units
      • 2,700 calories/day per unit  
      • 66 metres cloth/year
      • Housing: 10%, fuel & misc.: 20%, contingencies: 25%
    • Wage fixation to consider geography, skill level, and experience.
    • Technical Committee for skill categorisation; Central Advisory Board for floor wage.
  • Code on Social Security
    • Replaces 12 earlier rules (EPF, ESI, gratuity, unorganised workers).
    • National Social Security Board with representation of unorganised, gig, and platform workers.
    • Creche mandatory in establishments with 50+ employees.
  • Women & Night Shifts
    • Mandatory written consent, transport, and CCTV surveillance.
  • Industrial Relations Code
    • Provides for secret ballot for trade union verification.
    • Recognises Fixed Term Employment through written contracts.
    • Worker categories clearly defined (permanent, temporary, apprentices, etc.).

Static Linkages

  • Living wage and humane working conditions.
  • Codification of labour laws for ease of compliance.
  • Tripartite labour governance.
  • Extension of social security beyond organised sector.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Simplifies fragmented labour laws.
    • Objective, consumption-based wage fixation.
    • Formal recognition of gig/platform workers.
    • Improves women’s workplace safety.  
    • Transparent trade union recognition.
  • Cons
    • Uneven State-level implementation capacity.
    • Higher compliance burden for MSMEs.
    • Effectiveness for gig workers depends on registration and funding.
    • Centre–State coordination issues in floor wage fixation.

Way Forward

  • Strengthen digital databases for unorganised and gig workers.
  • Capacity-building support for MSMEs.  
  • Regular revision of wage norms.
  • Technology-driven inspections and grievance redressal.

INDIA’S SPACE PEOPLE’S JOURNEY

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • India’s space sector is transitioning from mission-based success to human spaceflight, deep-space exploration, and commercial expansion.
  • Chandrayaan-3 (2023) achieved the first soft landing near the lunar south pole.
  • Gaganyaan marks India’s entry into indigenous human spaceflight, targeted around 2027.
  • Increased private participation, global collaborations, and higher budgetary support signal long-term strategic intent. pasted

Key Points

  • Human Spaceflight: Gaganyaan approved outlay ₹20,000+ crore; uncrewed → crewed mission sequence.
  • Major Missions:
    • Chandrayaan series: water discovery → lunar mapping → south pole landing.
    • Aditya-L1: solar corona and space weather.
    • SpaDeX: successful in-orbit docking demonstration.
  • Global Standing: 400+ foreign satellites launched; Mars mission succeeded on first attempt.
  • Economy & Budget: Space budget nearly tripled since 2013; space economy projected $44 bn.
  • Governance Uses: Disaster warning, agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure planning.
  • Ecosystem: 350+ startups; push for space manufacturing and launch services.

Static Linkages

  • Strategic autonomy through indigenous technology.
  • Role of space assets in disaster management and resource mapping.
  • State-led innovation enabling private sector growth.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Cost-effective missions enhance global credibility.
    • Boosts STEM education and high- tech employment.
    • Strengthens national security and governance capacity.
  • Concerns
    • Space debris and orbital congestion.
    • High costs and long gestation of human missions.
    • Need for skilled manpower and clear regulation.

Way Forward

  • Strengthen space regulatory and debris mitigation frameworks.
  • Expand astronaut training and R&D investment.
  • Deepen private sector integration and global data-sharing.
  •  

U.S. TARIFF SHOCK, PHARMA FUTURE

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
What is the issue?
  • In September 2025, the U.S. announced a 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical imports.
  • The objective is to encourage domestic drug manufacturing in the U.S.
  • Generic medicines are currently exempt, but the policy signals future uncertainty.

Why is this important for India?

  • India is the largest supplier of generic medicines globally.
  • It supplies around 40% of generic drugs used in the U.S.
  • The U.S. accounts for nearly 35% of India’s pharma exports, making it India’s most critical market.
  • India’s pharma sector:
    • Size: ~$50 billion
    • Contribution to GDP: ~1.72%
    • Major source of export earnings and skilled employment

What is the likely impact?

  • Short term
    • Limited direct impact because generics are exempt.
    • Stock market volatility reflects policy uncertainty.
  • If tariffs extend to generics
    • 10–15% decline in pharma export revenues.  
    • 0.2–0.3% reduction in India’s GDP growth.
    • Increase in drug prices in the U.S., reducing affordability.

What structural issues are highlighted?

  • High export concentration: Excessive dependence on the U.S. market.
  • API dependence: About 72% of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients are imported from China.
  • Regulatory and IP risks: Patent disputes and compliance costs affect competitiveness.

What works in India’s favour?

  • Strong comparative advantage in low-cost generics.
  • GST reduction on medicines (12% → 5%) has boosted domestic consumption.
  • Government-backed generic medicine distribution improves internal demand stability.
  • Increasing outreach to Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America.

Static concept linkage

  • Comparative Advantage → specialization in generics
  • TRIPS Flexibilities → balancing patents and public health
  • Supply-chain resilience → reducing critical import dependence
  • Health economics → generics lower out-of-pocket expenditure

What should be the way forward?

  • Expand domestic API manufacturing through incentives and bulk drug parks.
  • Diversify export markets to reduce U.S. overdependence.
  • Strengthen trade diplomacy and multilateral engagement.
  • Move up the value chain via biosimilars and complex generics.
  • Balance industrial growth with affordable healthcare goals.
DESCENT INTO FARCE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
  • The Election Commission of India undertook a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in 12 States/UTs ahead of Assembly elections.
  • Reports from West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat flagged large-scale deletions and procedural confusion.
  • Public backlash led to home verification for elderly voters and partial halting of hearings for “unmapped” voters.
  • The exercise has raised concerns about timing, transparency, and voter disenfranchisement, prompting calls for judicial scrutiny by the Supreme Court of India.

Key Points

  • Over 6.5 crore deletions nationwide (provisional).
  • Uttar Pradesh: ~2.89 crore deletions; draft roll publication postponed.
  • Tamil Nadu (~97 lakh) and Gujarat (~73.7 lakh) deletions despite net in-migration.
  • Software-driven notices and “unmapped” voter flags used inconsistently across States.
  • Allegations of bypassing Electoral Registration Officers (EROs).
  • Conducted close to elections, heightening exclusion risks.
  • Perception of SIR turning into indirect citizenship screening.

Static Linkages

  • Universal adult franchise as a democratic principle.
  • Article 324: Superintendence of elections.  
  • Representation of the People Act, 1950: Electoral rolls.
  • Principles of natural justice in administration.
  • Role of statutory authorities in federal governance.

Critical Analysis

  • Positives
    • Helps remove duplicates and update rolls.
    • Technology can improve efficiency if regulated.
  • Concerns
    • Mass deletions threaten universal franchise.
    • Inconsistent software use reduces transparency.
    • Weakens statutory role of EROs.
    • Timing before elections undermines trust.
    • Disproportionate impact on elderly, migrants, urban poor.

Way Forward

  • Pause SIR in poll-bound States.
  • Standardise software protocols with audits.
  • Ensure ERO-led verification and reasoned orders.
  • Doorstep verification for vulnerable voters.
  • Transparent publication of deletion/addition data.
  • Judicial vetting for constitutionality.

HOLD THE CENTRE

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Incident-Specific

  • Death of Khaleda Zia (Dec 30) ends an era of personality-centric politics.
  • Rivalry with Sheikh Hasina (“Battle of the Begums”) shaped Bangladesh’s post-1990 democracy.
  • Sheikh Hasina deposed in 2024 uprising; currently in exile in India.
  • General elections scheduled for 12 February 2026 amid instability.
  • Tarique Rahman returns from 17-year exile to lead Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Key Points

  • Interim government led by Muhammad Yunus faces governance and law-and-order crisis.
  • Mob violence, minority lynching and attacks on media reported.
  • Signs of revival of Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh increase internal security risks.
  • Awami League banned from political activity → credibility of elections questioned.
  • BNP remains main electoral force but has allegations of extortion and cadre violence.
  • National Citizen Party (from 2024 student movement) allies with Jamaat-e-Islami, raising concerns over secularism.

Static Linkages

  • Democratic transitions after authoritarian rule.
  • Role of political parties in representative democracy.
  • Secularism and minority protection in constitutional frameworks.
  • Internal security threats from non-state actors.
  • Importance of neutral interim governments in elections.

Critical Analysis

  • Opportunities
    • Generational change may reduce personalised politics.
    • BNP’s rhetoric of inclusivity signals possible moderation.
  •  Challenges
    • Ban on Awami League undermines political pluralism.
    • Weak law enforcement fuels mob rule and extremism.
    • Islamist political resurgence threatens secular constitutional order.
    • Minority insecurity erodes democratic legitimacy.

Way Forward

  • Ensure inclusive elections with participation of all major parties.
  • Restore rule of law; curb mob violence and political vigilantism.
  • Strengthen counter-terror mechanisms against extremist groups.
  • Internal reforms within BNP to institutionalise leadership.
  • Reaffirm secularism, minority rights and media freedom.
NEAR TERM EXTERNAL RISKS

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context

  • The Reserve Bank of India released its latest Financial Stability Report (FSR).
  • Indian economy remains growth-resilient due to strong domestic demand.
  • External uncertainties (geopolitics, trade tensions, global market volatility) pose near- term risks.
  • RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged uncertainty beyond 2026 due to fluid global policy shifts.

Key Points

  • External shocks may cause exchange rate volatility, lower capital inflows, and weaker corporate earnings.
  • Sharp correction in U.S. equities can spill over to Indian markets.
  • Global system vulnerable due to high public debt and overvalued risk assets.
  • Rising bank–NBFI interconnectedness increases contagion risk.
  • Stablecoins and private credit emerging as new financial risks.
  • Indian banks and NBFIs remain well-capitalised and liquid.

Static Linkages

  • Financial stability as a core central banking function.
  • Global spillovers via capital flows and asset prices.
  • Importance of macroprudential regulation.
  • Risks from shadow banking/NBFIs.

Critical Analysis

  • Strengths
    • Strong domestic demand cushions external shocks.
    • Improved bank and corporate balance sheets.
  • Risks
    • Global financial volatility.
    • Regulatory challenges from fintech and crypto assets.
    • Contagion risks via NBFIs.

Way Forward

  • Strengthen macroprudential oversight of banks and NBFIs.
  • Regulate digital finance and stablecoins.
  • Build buffers against external shocks.
  • Deepen domestic financial markets.

INDIA AS A BRIDGE IN 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • 2025–26 marked by geopolitical instability, weaponised trade, AI disruption and climate urgency.
  • Globalisation characterised by high interdependence but low trust.
  • India tested and refined its multi-alignment strategy to safeguard national interests.

Key Points

  • Weaponised interdependence: Tariffs and export controls exposed risks to India’s exports, EV sector and green transition.
  • Strategic response: FTAs with multiple partners; export diversification and support measures.
  • Supply-chain resilience: Focus on critical minerals through domestic missions and external partnerships.
  • Economic fundamentals: Fiscal stability despite rupee pressure; inflation risk mainly via energy imports.
  • Structural reforms: Labour codes enacted; private entry in nuclear energy through SHANTI Act.
  • Global standing: India emerged as 4th largest economy; $5-trillion goal deferred but reforms sustained.
  • Diplomacy: Balanced engagement with major powers; deeper outreach to Global South.
  • Climate leadership: Advocacy for equity, finance and adaptation; push for solar and renewables.
  • Digital diplomacy: Export of India Stack, UPI linkages as global public goods.
  • AI transition: Job displacement risks alongside innovation opportunities.

Static Linkages

  • Strategic autonomy and non-alignment evolution.
  • Trade diversification and FTAs.
  • Energy security and critical minerals.
  • Fiscal prudence and structural reforms.  
  • Climate justice and CBDR principle.
  • Digital public infrastructure.  
  • Human capital and skilling.

Critical Analysis

  • Positives
    • Reduced dependence on any single power.  
    • Stronger economic shock-absorption.
    • Enhanced soft power via digital and climate leadership.
  • Concerns
    • Export vulnerability to tariffs.
    • Rupee depreciation and inflation risk.
    • Coal dependence persists.
    • AI-led inequality risks.

Way Forward

  • Accelerate diversified FTAs.
  • Secure critical minerals globally.
  • Balance energy security with green goals.  
  • Scale AI skilling and social protection.
  • Institutionalise tech-diplomacy.

POST TARIFFS BUILD, INDIA-AUSTRALIA PACT

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
  • From January 1, 2026, Australia removed all tariffs on Indian exports under Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA).
  • ECTA operational since December 2022; acts as a precursor to CECA.
  • Bilateral trade crossed AUD 50 billion (≈ ₹3 lakh crore).
  • Indian exports to Australia grew ~200% in 5 years, vs ~40% global export growth.
  • India and Australia negotiating CECA to deepen goods, services and investment ties.

Key Points

  • Market access
    • Australia: Zero-duty access for 100% Indian goods exports.
    • India: Selective tariff cuts on Australian coal, minerals, wool, wine, pulses.
  • Economic impact
    • Goods trade doubled in 5 years.
    • India: ECTA projected to create ~1 million jobs.
    • Australia: ~200,000 jobs linked to trade with India (estimate).
  • Economic complementarity
    • Australia: Critical minerals, energy, skilling.  
    • India: Manufactures, agri-products, textiles, engineering goods.
  • Strategic relevance
    • Anchors India’s Indo-Pacific economic engagement (statement by Piyush Goyal).

Static Linkages

  • Tariff liberalisation → trade creation and export competitiveness.
  • Comparative advantage → manufactures vs. resource endowments.
  • Trade diversification → external sector resilience.
  • Economic diplomacy → foreign policy instrument.

Critical Analysis

  • Pros
    • Stable, trusted market amid global trade uncertainty.
    • Supports Make in India via mineral and energy inputs.
    • Strengthens supply-chain resilience in Indo- Pacific.
  • Concerns
    • Possible import pressure on sensitive Indian sectors.
    • Non-tariff barriers may persist despite zero tariffs.
    • Services liberalisation remains limited.

Way Forward

  • Conclude CECA with strong services and investment chapters.
  • Harmonise standards and SPS norms.
  • Targeted support for MSMEs and exporters.
  • Expand cooperation in critical minerals, clean energy.
DESPITE TRUMP, CLIMATE RESOLVE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Context of the News

  • Nearly a decade after the Paris Agreement, global climate governance faced renewed strain in 2025.
  • The US, under Donald Trump, withdrew from the pact and expanded fossil fuel support.
  • Despite this, multilateral climate diplomacy remained resilient at COP30.
  • Developed countries committed to scaling up adaptation finance and supporting climate action in the Global South.
  • Renewable energy growth continued globally, including in India, though vulnerabilities in green infrastructure were exposed.

Key Points

  • Attempts to dismantle the Paris Agreement’s framework failed due to collective Global South resistance.
  • Developed nations pledged to triple adaptation finance by 2035 and operationalise a new climate finance fund.
  • Renewables overtook coal as the largest global electricity source in 2024–25.
  • Policy reversals led the International Energy Agency to halve US clean energy growth projections.
  • Europe’s energy stress highlighted intermittency risks from wind shortfalls and drought-hit hydropower.
  • India is on track to meet its NDC targets ahead of schedule.
  • Strong links are emerging between climate change, air pollution, extreme weather, and public health in India.

Static Linkages

  • Greenhouse effect and anthropogenic climate change
  • Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR-RC)
  • Climate mitigation vs adaptation
  • Renewable energy systems and energy security
  • Disaster risk reduction and resilience
  • Environment–health–economy linkages

Critical Analysis

  • Strengths
    • Multilateral climate institutions showed resilience.
    • Greater focus on adaptation aligns with developing country needs.
    • India’s climate performance enhances global credibility.
  • Concerns
    • Withdrawal of major emitters weakens global ambition.
    • Renewable intermittency and ageing infrastructure remain challenges.
    • Climate finance delivery and transparency gaps persist.

Way Forward

  • Strengthen storage, grids, and climate-resilient infrastructure.
  • Integrate climate action with health, urban planning, and disaster policy.
  • Ensure predictable and concessional climate finance.
  • Boost domestic clean-tech manufacturing.
  • Embed climate risk assessment in economic planning.