Centre Pre-Publishes Labour Codes | India’s Space, People’s Journey | US Tariff Shock, Pharma Future | Decent Into Farce | Hold The Centre | Near-Term External Risks | India As a Bridge in 2026 | Post-Tariffs, Build India-Australia Pact | Despite Trump, Climate Resolve
CENTRE PRE-PUBLISHES LABOUR CODE- Union Labour Ministry released draft Rules to operationalise the four Labour Codes and invited public comments for 45 days.
- Rules consolidate multiple legacy labour regulations into a simplified framework.
- Focus areas include 48-hour work week, minimum wages, social security expansion, women’s night-shift safety, and industrial relations reforms.
Key Points
- Code on Wages
- Merges 18 earlier wage-related rules
- Minimum wages based on standard working class family:
- Spouse + two children; 3 consumption units
- 2,700 calories/day per unit
- 66 metres cloth/year
- Housing: 10%, fuel & misc.: 20%, contingencies: 25%
- Wage fixation to consider geography, skill level, and experience.
- Technical Committee for skill categorisation; Central Advisory Board for floor wage.
- Code on Social Security
- Replaces 12 earlier rules (EPF, ESI, gratuity, unorganised workers).
- National Social Security Board with representation of unorganised, gig, and platform workers.
- Creche mandatory in establishments with 50+ employees.
- Women & Night Shifts
- Mandatory written consent, transport, and CCTV surveillance.
- Industrial Relations Code
- Provides for secret ballot for trade union verification.
- Recognises Fixed Term Employment through written contracts.
- Worker categories clearly defined (permanent, temporary, apprentices, etc.).
Static Linkages
- Living wage and humane working conditions.
- Codification of labour laws for ease of compliance.
- Tripartite labour governance.
- Extension of social security beyond organised sector.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Simplifies fragmented labour laws.
- Objective, consumption-based wage fixation.
- Formal recognition of gig/platform workers.
- Improves women’s workplace safety.
- Transparent trade union recognition.
- Cons
- Uneven State-level implementation capacity.
- Higher compliance burden for MSMEs.
- Effectiveness for gig workers depends on registration and funding.
- Centre–State coordination issues in floor wage fixation.
Way Forward
- Strengthen digital databases for unorganised and gig workers.
- Capacity-building support for MSMEs.
- Regular revision of wage norms.
- Technology-driven inspections and grievance redressal.
INDIA’S SPACE PEOPLE’S JOURNEY
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- India’s space sector is transitioning from mission-based success to human spaceflight, deep-space exploration, and commercial expansion.
- Chandrayaan-3 (2023) achieved the first soft landing near the lunar south pole.
- Gaganyaan marks India’s entry into indigenous human spaceflight, targeted around 2027.
- Increased private participation, global collaborations, and higher budgetary support signal long-term strategic intent. pasted
Key Points
- Human Spaceflight: Gaganyaan approved outlay ₹20,000+ crore; uncrewed → crewed mission sequence.
- Major Missions:
- Chandrayaan series: water discovery → lunar mapping → south pole landing.
- Aditya-L1: solar corona and space weather.
- SpaDeX: successful in-orbit docking demonstration.
- Global Standing: 400+ foreign satellites launched; Mars mission succeeded on first attempt.
- Economy & Budget: Space budget nearly tripled since 2013; space economy projected $44 bn.
- Governance Uses: Disaster warning, agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure planning.
- Ecosystem: 350+ startups; push for space manufacturing and launch services.
Static Linkages
- Strategic autonomy through indigenous technology.
- Role of space assets in disaster management and resource mapping.
- State-led innovation enabling private sector growth.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Cost-effective missions enhance global credibility.
- Boosts STEM education and high- tech employment.
- Strengthens national security and governance capacity.
- Concerns
- Space debris and orbital congestion.
- High costs and long gestation of human missions.
- Need for skilled manpower and clear regulation.
Way Forward
- Strengthen space regulatory and debris mitigation frameworks.
- Expand astronaut training and R&D investment.
- Deepen private sector integration and global data-sharing.
U.S. TARIFF SHOCK, PHARMA FUTURE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
What is the issue?
- In September 2025, the U.S. announced a 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical imports.
- The objective is to encourage domestic drug manufacturing in the U.S.
- Generic medicines are currently exempt, but the policy signals future uncertainty.
Why is this important for India?
- India is the largest supplier of generic medicines globally.
- It supplies around 40% of generic drugs used in the U.S.
- The U.S. accounts for nearly 35% of India’s pharma exports, making it India’s most critical market.
- India’s pharma sector:
- Size: ~$50 billion
- Contribution to GDP: ~1.72%
- Major source of export earnings and skilled employment
What is the likely impact?
- Short term
- Limited direct impact because generics are exempt.
- Stock market volatility reflects policy uncertainty.
- If tariffs extend to generics
- 10–15% decline in pharma export revenues.
- 0.2–0.3% reduction in India’s GDP growth.
- Increase in drug prices in the U.S., reducing affordability.
What structural issues are highlighted?
- High export concentration: Excessive dependence on the U.S. market.
- API dependence: About 72% of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients are imported from China.
- Regulatory and IP risks: Patent disputes and compliance costs affect competitiveness.
What works in India’s favour?
- Strong comparative advantage in low-cost generics.
- GST reduction on medicines (12% → 5%) has boosted domestic consumption.
- Government-backed generic medicine distribution improves internal demand stability.
- Increasing outreach to Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America.
Static concept linkage
- Comparative Advantage → specialization in generics
- TRIPS Flexibilities → balancing patents and public health
- Supply-chain resilience → reducing critical import dependence
- Health economics → generics lower out-of-pocket expenditure
What should be the way forward?
- Expand domestic API manufacturing through incentives and bulk drug parks.
- Diversify export markets to reduce U.S. overdependence.
- Strengthen trade diplomacy and multilateral engagement.
- Move up the value chain via biosimilars and complex generics.
- Balance industrial growth with affordable healthcare goals.
DESCENT INTO FARCE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- The Election Commission of India undertook a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in 12 States/UTs ahead of Assembly elections.
- Reports from West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat flagged large-scale deletions and procedural confusion.
- Public backlash led to home verification for elderly voters and partial halting of hearings for “unmapped” voters.
- The exercise has raised concerns about timing, transparency, and voter disenfranchisement, prompting calls for judicial scrutiny by the Supreme Court of India.
Key Points
- Over 6.5 crore deletions nationwide (provisional).
- Uttar Pradesh: ~2.89 crore deletions; draft roll publication postponed.
- Tamil Nadu (~97 lakh) and Gujarat (~73.7 lakh) deletions despite net in-migration.
- Software-driven notices and “unmapped” voter flags used inconsistently across States.
- Allegations of bypassing Electoral Registration Officers (EROs).
- Conducted close to elections, heightening exclusion risks.
- Perception of SIR turning into indirect citizenship screening.
Static Linkages
- Universal adult franchise as a democratic principle.
- Article 324: Superintendence of elections.
- Representation of the People Act, 1950: Electoral rolls.
- Principles of natural justice in administration.
- Role of statutory authorities in federal governance.
Critical Analysis
- Positives
- Helps remove duplicates and update rolls.
- Technology can improve efficiency if regulated.
- Concerns
- Mass deletions threaten universal franchise.
- Inconsistent software use reduces transparency.
- Weakens statutory role of EROs.
- Timing before elections undermines trust.
- Disproportionate impact on elderly, migrants, urban poor.
Way Forward
- Pause SIR in poll-bound States.
- Standardise software protocols with audits.
- Ensure ERO-led verification and reasoned orders.
- Doorstep verification for vulnerable voters.
- Transparent publication of deletion/addition data.
- Judicial vetting for constitutionality.
HOLD THE CENTRE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Incident-Specific
- Death of Khaleda Zia (Dec 30) ends an era of personality-centric politics.
- Rivalry with Sheikh Hasina (“Battle of the Begums”) shaped Bangladesh’s post-1990 democracy.
- Sheikh Hasina deposed in 2024 uprising; currently in exile in India.
- General elections scheduled for 12 February 2026 amid instability.
- Tarique Rahman returns from 17-year exile to lead Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
Key Points
- Interim government led by Muhammad Yunus faces governance and law-and-order crisis.
- Mob violence, minority lynching and attacks on media reported.
- Signs of revival of Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh increase internal security risks.
- Awami League banned from political activity → credibility of elections questioned.
- BNP remains main electoral force but has allegations of extortion and cadre violence.
- National Citizen Party (from 2024 student movement) allies with Jamaat-e-Islami, raising concerns over secularism.
Static Linkages
- Democratic transitions after authoritarian rule.
- Role of political parties in representative democracy.
- Secularism and minority protection in constitutional frameworks.
- Internal security threats from non-state actors.
- Importance of neutral interim governments in elections.
Critical Analysis
- Opportunities
- Generational change may reduce personalised politics.
- BNP’s rhetoric of inclusivity signals possible moderation.
- Challenges
- Ban on Awami League undermines political pluralism.
- Weak law enforcement fuels mob rule and extremism.
- Islamist political resurgence threatens secular constitutional order.
- Minority insecurity erodes democratic legitimacy.
Way Forward
- Ensure inclusive elections with participation of all major parties.
- Restore rule of law; curb mob violence and political vigilantism.
- Strengthen counter-terror mechanisms against extremist groups.
- Internal reforms within BNP to institutionalise leadership.
- Reaffirm secularism, minority rights and media freedom.
NEAR TERM EXTERNAL RISKS- The Reserve Bank of India released its latest Financial Stability Report (FSR).
- Indian economy remains growth-resilient due to strong domestic demand.
- External uncertainties (geopolitics, trade tensions, global market volatility) pose near- term risks.
- RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged uncertainty beyond 2026 due to fluid global policy shifts.
Key Points
- External shocks may cause exchange rate volatility, lower capital inflows, and weaker corporate earnings.
- Sharp correction in U.S. equities can spill over to Indian markets.
- Global system vulnerable due to high public debt and overvalued risk assets.
- Rising bank–NBFI interconnectedness increases contagion risk.
- Stablecoins and private credit emerging as new financial risks.
- Indian banks and NBFIs remain well-capitalised and liquid.
Static Linkages
- Financial stability as a core central banking function.
- Global spillovers via capital flows and asset prices.
- Importance of macroprudential regulation.
- Risks from shadow banking/NBFIs.
Critical Analysis
- Strengths
- Strong domestic demand cushions external shocks.
- Improved bank and corporate balance sheets.
- Risks
- Global financial volatility.
- Regulatory challenges from fintech and crypto assets.
- Contagion risks via NBFIs.
Way Forward
- Strengthen macroprudential oversight of banks and NBFIs.
- Regulate digital finance and stablecoins.
- Build buffers against external shocks.
- Deepen domestic financial markets.
INDIA AS A BRIDGE IN 2026
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- 2025–26 marked by geopolitical instability, weaponised trade, AI disruption and climate urgency.
- Globalisation characterised by high interdependence but low trust.
- India tested and refined its multi-alignment strategy to safeguard national interests.
Key Points
- Weaponised interdependence: Tariffs and export controls exposed risks to India’s exports, EV sector and green transition.
- Strategic response: FTAs with multiple partners; export diversification and support measures.
- Supply-chain resilience: Focus on critical minerals through domestic missions and external partnerships.
- Economic fundamentals: Fiscal stability despite rupee pressure; inflation risk mainly via energy imports.
- Structural reforms: Labour codes enacted; private entry in nuclear energy through SHANTI Act.
- Global standing: India emerged as 4th largest economy; $5-trillion goal deferred but reforms sustained.
- Diplomacy: Balanced engagement with major powers; deeper outreach to Global South.
- Climate leadership: Advocacy for equity, finance and adaptation; push for solar and renewables.
- Digital diplomacy: Export of India Stack, UPI linkages as global public goods.
- AI transition: Job displacement risks alongside innovation opportunities.
Static Linkages
- Strategic autonomy and non-alignment evolution.
- Trade diversification and FTAs.
- Energy security and critical minerals.
- Fiscal prudence and structural reforms.
- Climate justice and CBDR principle.
- Digital public infrastructure.
- Human capital and skilling.
Critical Analysis
- Positives
- Reduced dependence on any single power.
- Stronger economic shock-absorption.
- Enhanced soft power via digital and climate leadership.
- Concerns
- Export vulnerability to tariffs.
- Rupee depreciation and inflation risk.
- Coal dependence persists.
- AI-led inequality risks.
Way Forward
- Accelerate diversified FTAs.
- Secure critical minerals globally.
- Balance energy security with green goals.
- Scale AI skilling and social protection.
- Institutionalise tech-diplomacy.
POST TARIFFS BUILD, INDIA-AUSTRALIA PACT
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Context of the News
- From January 1, 2026, Australia removed all tariffs on Indian exports under Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA).
- ECTA operational since December 2022; acts as a precursor to CECA.
- Bilateral trade crossed AUD 50 billion (≈ ₹3 lakh crore).
- Indian exports to Australia grew ~200% in 5 years, vs ~40% global export growth.
- India and Australia negotiating CECA to deepen goods, services and investment ties.
Key Points
- Market access
- Australia: Zero-duty access for 100% Indian goods exports.
- India: Selective tariff cuts on Australian coal, minerals, wool, wine, pulses.
- Economic impact
- Goods trade doubled in 5 years.
- India: ECTA projected to create ~1 million jobs.
- Australia: ~200,000 jobs linked to trade with India (estimate).
- Economic complementarity
- Australia: Critical minerals, energy, skilling.
- India: Manufactures, agri-products, textiles, engineering goods.
- Strategic relevance
- Anchors India’s Indo-Pacific economic engagement (statement by Piyush Goyal).
Static Linkages
- Tariff liberalisation → trade creation and export competitiveness.
- Comparative advantage → manufactures vs. resource endowments.
- Trade diversification → external sector resilience.
- Economic diplomacy → foreign policy instrument.
Critical Analysis
- Pros
- Stable, trusted market amid global trade uncertainty.
- Supports Make in India via mineral and energy inputs.
- Strengthens supply-chain resilience in Indo- Pacific.
- Concerns
- Possible import pressure on sensitive Indian sectors.
- Non-tariff barriers may persist despite zero tariffs.
- Services liberalisation remains limited.
Way Forward
- Conclude CECA with strong services and investment chapters.
- Harmonise standards and SPS norms.
- Targeted support for MSMEs and exporters.
- Expand cooperation in critical minerals, clean energy.
DESPITE TRUMP, CLIMATE RESOLVE
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Nearly a decade after the Paris Agreement, global climate governance faced renewed strain in 2025.
- The US, under Donald Trump, withdrew from the pact and expanded fossil fuel support.
- Despite this, multilateral climate diplomacy remained resilient at COP30.
- Developed countries committed to scaling up adaptation finance and supporting climate action in the Global South.
- Renewable energy growth continued globally, including in India, though vulnerabilities in green infrastructure were exposed.
Key Points
- Attempts to dismantle the Paris Agreement’s framework failed due to collective Global South resistance.
- Developed nations pledged to triple adaptation finance by 2035 and operationalise a new climate finance fund.
- Renewables overtook coal as the largest global electricity source in 2024–25.
- Policy reversals led the International Energy Agency to halve US clean energy growth projections.
- Europe’s energy stress highlighted intermittency risks from wind shortfalls and drought-hit hydropower.
- India is on track to meet its NDC targets ahead of schedule.
- Strong links are emerging between climate change, air pollution, extreme weather, and public health in India.
Static Linkages
- Greenhouse effect and anthropogenic climate change
- Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR-RC)
- Climate mitigation vs adaptation
- Renewable energy systems and energy security
- Disaster risk reduction and resilience
- Environment–health–economy linkages
Critical Analysis
- Strengths
- Multilateral climate institutions showed resilience.
- Greater focus on adaptation aligns with developing country needs.
- India’s climate performance enhances global credibility.
- Concerns
- Withdrawal of major emitters weakens global ambition.
- Renewable intermittency and ageing infrastructure remain challenges.
- Climate finance delivery and transparency gaps persist.
Way Forward
- Strengthen storage, grids, and climate-resilient infrastructure.
- Integrate climate action with health, urban planning, and disaster policy.
- Ensure predictable and concessional climate finance.
- Boost domestic clean-tech manufacturing.
- Embed climate risk assessment in economic planning.