15 October 2025

• The Supreme Court extended the stay on the Enforcement Directorate (ED) probe into alleged money laundering linked to Tamil Nadu State Marketing Corporation (TASMAC).
• CJI B.R. Gavai questioned whether the ED’s actions encroach on the State’s right to investigate, raising federalism concerns.
• The matter is linked to the pending review of the 2022 Vijay Madanlal Choudhary judgment, which upheld the ED’s wide powers under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002.

Key Points

• Federal Issue: SC observed that ED’s probe may violate the federal structure by overriding State police powers.
• ED’s View: It is only probing the money- laundering component of offences already registered by the State.
• State’s Stand: TASMAC argued that 47 FIRs were already filed by the State Vigilance Department, making ED’s probe unnecessary.
• ECIR Dispute: TASMAC denied access to the ECIR; ED claimed it is an internal document as per Vijay Madanlal.
• Political Context: Tamil Nadu alleges misuse of Central agencies for political purposes.

Static Linkages

• Art. 246 & 7th Schedule: “Police” & “Public Order” — State subjects.
• Art. 131: Supreme Court’s original jurisdiction in Centre–State disputes.
• Art. 355: Union’s duty to protect States — not a ground for ED intervention
• PMLA, 2002: Defines “proceeds of crime” and empowers ED to investigate scheduled offences.
• Cooperative Federalism: Essential to maintain balance in Centre–State relations.

Critical Analysis

• Pros:
  • Strengthens national anti-corruption framework.
  • Ensures uniform enforcement of financial laws.
• Cons:
  • Encroaches on State policing powers.  Lack of transparency (no ECIR access).  Possible political misuse of ED.
  • Low conviction rate under PMLA (<1%).
• Constitutional Angle:
  • Balancing federalism with national integrity and ensuring due process.

Way Forward

• Clarify ED’s jurisdiction vis-à-vis State police.
• Mandate information-sharing under Sec. 66(2) PMLA.
• Increase judicial and parliamentary oversight on ED.
• Promote cooperative federalism through joint investigation protocols.

BANGLADESH’S SHIFTING POLITICAL DYNAMICS

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• Bangladesh is witnessing a major political shift before the 2026 general elections.
• The interim government led by Mohammed Yunus is supported by the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) and the new National Citizen Party (NCP).
• Traditional parties — Awami League (banned since May 2025) and BNP (in exile and divided) — are losing ground.
• Army Chief Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman has maintained limited interference, unlike past coups.

Key Points

• NCP and Jamaat demand a Proportional Representation (PR) system to replace FPTP.
• BNP’s credibility weakened by delayed response and leadership in exile (Tarique Rahman still abroad).
• Awami League’s vacuum under exiled Sheikh Hasina deepens instability.
• Student movements and Jamaat-backed groups are gaining ground in campuses and politics.
• International Crimes Tribunal’s upcoming verdict on Hasina may intensify tensions.

Static Linkages

• Parliamentary Democracy: Bangladesh’s unicameral system mirrors India’s model.
• PR vs FPTP: India uses PR for Rajya Sabha & President; Bangladesh uses FPTP.
• Civil–Military Balance: Critical for democratic stability.
• Student Movements: Historically key in South Asian politics (e.g., 1971 Liberation, JP Movement).

• Critical Analysis

• Positives
  • Youth entry may democratize politics.
  • Army’s restraint strengthens civilian governance.
  • PR demand indicates maturing democratic aspirations.
• Concerns
  • Jamaat’s 1971 legacy may challenge secularism.
  • Interim setup risks political bias.
  • Weak leadership in BNP & AL fuels instability.

Way Forward

• Ensure time-bound, transparent elections with global observers.
• Promote youth inclusion while curbing radical influence.
• Maintain civil-military balance and institutional neutrality.
• India should pursue non- partisan engagement prioritizing stability.

AUSTRALIA-INDIA CLEAN ENERGY PUSH

• Australia’s Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen visits India (Oct 15, 2025) to meet MNRE Minister Pralhad Joshi.
• Aim: Strengthen the India–Australia Renewable Energy Partnership (REP) launched in 2024.
• Context: Both nations pursuing clean energy goals amid supply chain dependence on China for critical minerals and solar components.

Key Points

• REP Focus Areas: Solar PV, green hydrogen, energy storage, critical minerals, circular economy, two-way investments, capacity building.
• Track 1.5 Dialogue: Policy–industry–research cooperation.
• India: Target 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030 (50% achieved).
• Australia: Target 62–70% emissions cut (below 2005 levels) by 2035.
• Indo-Pacific: Faces ~10 climate disasters/month; 89 million people may be displaced by 2050.
• Challenge: China refines 90% of rare earths and produces 80% of solar modules.

Static Linkages

• Paris Agreement & NDCs – Emission reduction commitments.
• Mission Innovation, ISA – Global clean energy cooperation.
• Critical Minerals – As per NITI Aayog, essential but supply-risked elements.
• PLI Scheme & National Hydrogen Mission – Incentivize green manufacturing.
• Energy Security – Key aspect of sustainable economic growth (Economic Survey).

Critical Analysis

• Pros:
  • Enhances energy security and supply-chain resilience.
  • Promotes technology transfer and green investments.
  • Creates jobs, aligns with Atmanirbhar Bharat.
• Challenges:
  • High investment needs in refining and downstream sectors.
  • China’s supply dominance persists.
  • Policy coordination and skill gaps remain.

Way Forward

• Fast-track REP pilot projects in solar, hydrogen.
• Develop joint refining facilities for critical minerals.
• Link Skill India with Australia’s Net Zero Jobs Plan.
• Build Indo-Pacific Clean Energy Corridor.
• Encourage circular economy and multilateral clean energy cooperation.

• Retail inflation (CPI) fell to 1.54% in Sept 2025 — a 99-month low.
• Average inflation in H1 FY26: 2.2%, within the RBI’s 2–6% band.
• Inflation consistently below 4% target raises policy questions for RBI.
• Government efforts (tax cuts, GST rate cuts) have not revived demand.

Key Points

• RBI forecast error: From 4% (April 2025) → revised to 2.6% (Sept).
• Falling category inflation: Clothing & footwear – 2.3%.
• Low inflation = weak demand, despite supply stability.
• Private investments rising but need faster execution.
• Policy view: RBI may need to cut rates in Dec MPC to boost growth.

Static Linkages

• CPI: Measured by NSO (MoSPI).
• MPC (RBI Act, 1934): Sets repo rate to maintain price stability.
• Inflation Target: 4% ± 2%, as per 2016 Monetary Policy Framework.
• Urjit Patel Committee (2014): Proposed flexible inflation targeting.
• Phillips Curve: Inflation–unemployment trade- off.

Critical Analysis

• Pros:
  • Room for rate cuts; stable prices aid growth.
  • Encourages private investment and job creation.
• Cons:
  • Signals weak demand, stagnant wages.  
  • Forecast errors hurt policy credibility.  
  • Exports constrained by tariff tensions.
• Stakeholders:
  • RBI: Balancing inflation & growth.
  • Govt: Prefers accommodative stance.  Industry: Needs lower rates.
  • Households: Cautious spending.

Way Forward

• Rate cuts to spur investment.
• Better inflation forecasting models.
• Stronger fiscal–monetary coordination.  
• Boost real wages and consumption.
• Diversify exports to absorb supply.

 COMPLICITY,NOT DIPLOMACY

Context of the News

• Taliban delegation, led by Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, visited New Delhi (Oct 2025).
• The visit coincided with the People’s Tribunal for Women of Afghanistan in Madrid, where Afghan women testified on Taliban’s gender persecution.
• India’s hosting of the Taliban raises concerns over diplomatic engagement vs. moral responsibility.

Key Points

• Afghan women barred from education, employment, public spaces since Taliban takeover (Aug 2021).
• Reporters Without Borders (2024): 80% of women journalists lost jobs.
• AMSO (2025): 7% work openly, 33% secretly, 42% quit journalism.
• Taliban’s Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice Law (2024) forbids women’s voices in media.
• Tribunal in Madrid termed Taliban actions as “gender persecution” – potential crime against humanity.

Static Linkages

• Fundamental Rights: Articles 14, 15, 21
• Directive Principles: Article 51(c) – respect for international law
• International Instruments: CEDAW (1979), UNSC Resolution 1325
• India’s Foreign Policy: Panchsheel, Non-Alignment

Critical Analysis

• Pros:
  • Strategic engagement ensures India’s security, influence in Afghanistan.
  • Opportunity to push for women’s rights through diplomacy.
• Cons:
  • Normalises regime violating women’s rights.
  • Contradicts India’s commitment to UNSDG-5 (Gender Equality).
  • Weakens India’s global soft power.

Way Forward

• Link engagement to measurable progress on women’s rights.
• Support Afghan women journalists, teachers, NGOs through scholarships and fellowships.
• Strengthen gender-sensitive foreign policy consistent with India’s values.
• Coordinate with regional and global bodies for pressure on Taliban.

DON’T LOSE THE PEACE

Context

• On October 13, 2025, Israel and Hamas conducted a hostage-prisoner swap, a key step toward stability in West Asia.
• US President Donald Trump co-chaired an international summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, attended by 20+ world leaders including France, UK, Italy, Canada, and Germany.
• A joint statement by Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the US welcomed Gaza developments and emphasized collective efforts for lasting peace.
• While Palestinian statehood was not explicitly mentioned, both Palestinians and Israelis were placed on equal footing regarding rights and security.

Key Points

• Summit envisions a West Asia where all pursue peace, security, and prosperity, irrespective of race, faith, or ethnicity.
• Trump-Abbas handshake symbolically restored Palestinian diplomatic recognition.
• Phase 1 ceasefire implemented; Phase 2 (Gaza reconstruction, security) remains uncertain.
• Hamas disarmament is crucial; failure may trigger Israeli military response.

Static Linkages

• UN principles on peaceful dispute resolution.
• Concepts of sovereignty, human rights, and self-determination.
• Historical Israel-Palestine treaties: Oslo Accord, Camp David Accord.

Critical Analysis

• Pros:
  • Step towards reducing hostilities and restoring stability in Gaza.
  • International consensus strengthens the legitimacy of peace efforts.
  • Symbolic gestures like Trump-Abbas handshake may help rebuild trust.
• Cons/Challenges:
  • Uncertainty regarding Phase 2 negotiations and reconstruction.
  • Persistent threat from Hamas weapons and governance structure in Gaza.
  • Potential Israeli military response if ceasefire is violated.
  • US policy credibility may be questioned due to prior inconsistent stances.
• Stakeholder Perspectives:
  • Israel: Security and territorial concerns, prevent escalation.
  • Palestinians: Seek international recognition, statehood, and dignity.
  • US & International Community: Facilitator role, balancing interests of all parties.

Way Forward

• Immediate clarification and initiation of Phase 2 negotiations.
• Disarmament and integration of Hamas into a reformed Palestinian Authority.
• Sustained international monitoring to ensure compliance by all parties.
• Promote economic reconstruction of Gaza to stabilize the region.
• Encourage inclusive diplomacy with participation from all relevant stakeholders.